Earnings Growth of 0.8% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Chacha Food Company (SZSE:002557) Shareholders
Earnings Growth of 0.8% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Chacha Food Company (SZSE:002557) Shareholders
Chacha Food Company, Limited (SZSE:002557) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 45% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
Since Chacha Food Company has shed CN¥1.0b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Chacha Food Company actually managed to grow EPS by 2.4% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.
Revenue is actually up 7.3% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Chacha Food Company further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Chacha Food Company is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Chacha Food Company will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Chacha Food Company the TSR over the last 3 years was -41%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 7.6% in the last year, Chacha Food Company shareholders lost 19% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Chacha Food Company's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.