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Despite Shrinking by HK$1.4b in the Past Week, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (HKG:1138) Shareholders Are Still up 141% Over 3 Years

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 23, 2024 09:42

It hasn't been the best quarter for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (HKG:1138) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 25% in that time. But that doesn't undermine the rather lovely longer-term return, if you measure over the last three years. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 119% in that time. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation became profitable within the last three years. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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SEHK:1138 Earnings Per Share Growth November 23rd 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation the TSR over the last 3 years was 141%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 15% in the last year, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation shareholders lost 9.7% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 19%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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