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What Deckers Outdoor Corporation's (NYSE:DECK) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 23 20:00

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 81%.

Following the firm bounce in price, Deckers Outdoor's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Deckers Outdoor certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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NYSE:DECK Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry November 23rd 2024
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Is There Enough Growth For Deckers Outdoor?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Deckers Outdoor would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 47%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 120% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 11% per year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Deckers Outdoor is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has got Deckers Outdoor's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Deckers Outdoor currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Deckers Outdoor is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Deckers Outdoor's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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