The EPAM Systems, Inc. (NYSE:EPAM) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 4.0% in the last twelve months.
Following the firm bounce in price, EPAM Systems' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, EPAM Systems' earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
EPAM Systems' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 5.0% decrease to the company's bottom line. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 14% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why EPAM Systems is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
The strong share price surge has got EPAM Systems' P/E rushing to great heights as well. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of EPAM Systems' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for EPAM Systems with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
