Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Verisk Analytics fair value estimate is US$246
- With US$291 share price, Verisk Analytics appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Analyst price target for VRSK is US$286, which is 16% above our fair value estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSK) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$1.03b | US$1.11b | US$1.24b | US$1.33b | US$1.41b | US$1.48b | US$1.54b | US$1.60b | US$1.65b | US$1.71b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 7.28% | Est @ 5.89% | Est @ 4.91% | Est @ 4.22% | Est @ 3.74% | Est @ 3.40% | Est @ 3.17% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.4% | US$970 | US$981 | US$1.0k | US$1.0k | US$1.0k | US$1.0k | US$999 | US$974 | US$946 | US$917 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$9.9b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.7b× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.4%– 2.6%) = US$46b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$46b÷ ( 1 + 6.4%)10= US$25b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$35b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$291, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Verisk Analytics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.918. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Verisk Analytics
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Balance sheet summary for VRSK.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for VRSK?
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Verisk Analytics, there are three pertinent factors you should look at:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Verisk Analytics that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for VRSK's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
