It's been a pretty great week for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$96.74 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$5.1b were what the analysts expected, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.17 per share, an impressive 31% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings after the latest results.

Following the latest results, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$21.9b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$4.24, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$21.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.21 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 8.4% to US$95.01despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings analyst has a price target of US$110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$63.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.3% over the past five years. Compare this to the 66 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.