综合而言，俄罗斯中程弹道导弹袭击乌克兰，地缘局势短期有所加剧，注意美联储12月降息概率不高，关注黄金此轮上冲能否再创新高。Last week, the comex gold price rose by 6.85% to $2,743.20 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 5.46% to 627.88 yuan per gram.
In terms of geopolitics, a Russian missile forces commander stated that the new type of missile can strike targets across europe.
Regarding interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve announced that the details of the upcoming framework review will not include a 2% inflation target, focusing instead on the global strategy statement and communication tools. The review will include a nationwide open "Fed Listening" event, and discussions among policymakers will begin at the January meeting. The latest cme "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 47.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 51.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 11.3%.
Overall, Russia's medium-range ballistic missile attack on Ukraine has temporarily intensified the geopolitical situation, noting that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is low, and focusing on whether gold can set a new high in this round.
Data source: Wind, Cnstock data, and Everbright Futures Research Institute.
Written by: Wu Aihua
Professional Qualification: F3074355
Investment Advisory Qualification: Z0017696
Disclaimer: The views, suggestions, and conclusions in the text are for reference only. The information in the report is based on public information. The analysis and recommendations in the report do not constitute investment basis for the mentioned varieties. Any investment decisions made by investors based on this are unrelated to our company and the author.
