高盛仍然认为，在2025年，布伦特原油均价将为76美元/桶；到2026年，由于90万桶/日的供应过剩，布伦特原油均价将为71美元/桶。该行预计，在GDP增长的同时总能源需求的不断上升、以及航空旅行和石化产品脱碳面临的持续挑战将推动石油需求在未来十年继续增长。Petroleum stocks picked up in early trading. As of press release, CNPC (00857) rose 1.8% to HK$5.65; CNOOC (00883) rose 3.05% to HK$17.58; CNOOC (02883) rose 3.93% to HK$7.14; and Sinopec (00386) rose 1.7% to HK$4.19.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that petroleum stocks picked up in early trading. As of press release, CNPC (00857) rose 1.8% to HK$5.65; CNOOC (00883) rose 3.05% to HK$17.58; CNOOC Services (02883) rose 3.93% to HK$7.14; and Sinopec (00386) rose 1.7% to HK$4.19.
According to the news, last week, Goldman Sachs said in a report that despite supply shortages and geopolitical uncertainty in 2024, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $80 per barrel this year, and an oversupply of 0.4 million barrels per day is expected in 2025. Goldman Sachs basically predicts that the price of Brent crude oil will remain in the range of 70-85 US dollars, high idle production capacity will limit price increases, and the price elasticity of OPEC and shale oil supply will limit price declines.
Goldman Sachs still believes that in 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will be 76 US dollars/barrel; by 2026, due to 0.9 million b/d oversupply, the average price of Brent crude oil will be 71 US dollars/barrel. The bank anticipates that rising overall energy demand while GDP grows, as well as continuing challenges facing air travel and decarbonization of petrochemical products, will drive oil demand to continue to grow over the next decade.
Ping An Securities pointed out that the pressure on global oil supply is still strong. The increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 may exceed the increase in demand, showing a certain accumulation of stocks. The turbulent geographical situation has further highlighted the importance of energy independence. Development spending on traditional energy is expected to rise again, leading oil and service companies with increased oil and gas exploration efforts, clear targets for increasing storage and production, great potential for overseas market development, and internationally advanced technology still have room to explore value.
