How did China's automobile export data perform in October? What are the institutions' expectations for China's car market in November?
According to the Financial Association on November 25 (Editor: Hu Jiarong), benefiting from the expected tariff adjustments by the EU on Chinese electric vehicles, most Hong Kong-listed auto stocks performed strongly. As of the time of publication, NIO-SW (09866.HK), BYD Company (01211.HK), and Li Auto-W (02015.HK) rose by 4.59%, 1.62%, and 1.40% respectively.
Note: Performance of auto stocks.
According to a report from the German news television channel on November 22, Behrend Lange, chairman of the European Parliament's Trade Committee, stated that the EU must readjust its competition policy after Trump took office. He mentioned that an agreement is expected to be reached at least regarding the tariff dispute involving Chinese electric vehicles.
Previously, the EU imposed countervailing duties on electric vehicles (EVs) manufactured in China. This came as a result of over a year-long countervailing investigation, where the EU found that the value chain of Chinese electric vehicles 'benefits from unfair subsidies, posing an economic threat to EU auto manufacturers.'
These new tariffs are imposed in addition to the existing 10% EU vehicle import tariff, with different rates applied based on the contribution of different manufacturers during the investigation and the extent to which they are deemed to benefit from subsidies. For example, BYD's tariff is 17%, Geely Group's is 18.8%, and SAIC Group's is 35.3%.
Meanwhile, China's automobile export data for October is impressive. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Vehicle Association, stated that in October 2024, China achieved an export of 0.59 million vehicles, an increase of 11% year-on-year compared to October 2023, and a 3% decrease month-on-month, with both year-on-year and month-on-month trends remaining stable; from January to October, China achieved an export of 5.28 million vehicles, with an export growth rate of 25%.
In October 2024, the export volume of new energy vehicles reached 0.2 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of 1%, and a month-on-month growth rate of 10%; from January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
The china Automobile Circulation Association: It is expected that the vehicle market will maintain a high level of prosperity in November.
According to the China Automobile Dealers Association's preliminary estimates, the total retail market size of narrow passenger vehicles in November is about 2.4 million vehicles, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, a 6.1% increase from the previous month. The retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 1.28 million, with a penetration rate of approximately 53.3%.
The association stated that the vehicle market in November will continue the high prosperity level since October, with the effects of the vehicle scrapping and trade-in policies continuing to be released, stabilizing and boosting the vehicle market; various auto manufacturers are also starting to leverage the singles' day sales promotions and the mid-month Guangzhou auto show to enhance consumer attention, with multiple favorable factors in play, making it expected that the vehicle market's heat will further increase in November.