大摩认为，由于其华东地区业务敞口较大，以需求及利润率而言属最佳，海螺水泥具有较好的盈利能见度，同时憧憬其海外扩张计划及中国潜在并购，可为中长期增长前景提供支持。Morgan Stanley has downgraded Conch Cement's earnings per share forecast for 2024 to 2026 to 1.66 yuan, 2.11 yuan, and 2.09 yuan respectively.
According to the Zhizhong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley has released a research report rating Conch Cement (00914) as "shareholding". Based on the management's reduction of capital expenditure guidance, the bank has also adjusted the market-price calculated AH premium down to 35%, which raises the target price for H shares from 21.9 Hong Kong dollars to 24.5 Hong Kong dollars.
In response to the 10% year-on-year decline in clinker and cement shipments for Conch Cement in the fourth quarter of this year, the bank has also lowered its full-year shipment forecasts. The forecasts for 2025 to 2026 have seen a slight decrease due to baseline year-on-year changes; thus, Morgan Stanley has respectively downgraded the earnings per share forecast for Conch Cement for 2024 to 2026 by 7.7%, 6.4%, and 6.2% to 1.66 yuan, 2.11 yuan, and 2.09 yuan.
Morgan Stanley believes that due to its large exposure in the East China region, which has the best demand and profit margins, Conch Cement has good earnings visibility. At the same time, the company's overseas expansion plans and potential mergers and acquisitions in China can provide support for medium- to long-term growth prospects.
