在最新防御的投资策略下，瑞银在焦点港股名单新增国泰航空(00293)、长江基建(01038)，剔出银娱(00027)、友邦(01299)，而领展(00823)和九龙仓置业(01997)继续是该行不看好的港股。UBS Releases 2025 Hong Kong Stock Strategy Report
The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released the 2025 Hong Kong Stock Strategy Report. It is expected that Hong Kong stocks will face serious challenges in 2025. Even if the US starts a cycle of interest rate cuts, the US is likely to impose 60% tariffs on China, and the struggle between China and the US may escalate, causing the UBS economist team to expect Hong Kong's economic growth to slow down. Considering the stock risk premium, the Hong Kong stock valuation ratio is at risk of being lowered. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the Hang Seng Index will only see 20,000 points, and the MSCI Hong Kong Index will see 8,400 points, which is roughly the current level.
UBS pointed out that the current equity risk premium (ERP) of the Hang Seng Index and MSCI Hong Kong is 0.1 to 0.4 standard deviations higher than the historical average. The market does not fully reflect the geopolitical challenges of Trump's return to power. It is expected that the price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index will drop further from 8.9 times the current level to 8.1 times by the end of next year. In terms of potential tariff effects, UBS indicated that mainland and Hong Kong stocks are less directly affected by US tariffs, but will be indirectly affected by the weakening of the overall economy.
Under the latest defensive investment strategy, UBS added Cathay Pacific (00293) and Yangtze River Infrastructure (01038) to the list of key Hong Kong stocks, excluding Bank Entertainment (00027) and AIA (01299), while Lingzhan (00823) and Jiulongchang Real Estate (01997) continued to be Hong Kong stocks that the bank was not optimistic about.
UBS's most optimistic Hong Kong stocks are Henderson Land (00012), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), PCC (00008), Bank of China Airlines Leasing (02588), Changjiang Infrastructure (01038), Cathay Pacific (00293), and Sands China (01928). UBS is least optimistic about Hong Kong stocks: MTR Corporation (00066), Lingzhan (00823), Wharf Land (01997), and Changshi Group (01113).
