Unless you borrow money to invest, the potential losses are limited. But if you pick the right stock, you can make a lot more than 100%. Take, for example EchoStar Corporation (NASDAQ:SATS). Its share price is already up an impressive 113% in the last twelve months. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 17% gain in the last three months. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 7.8% in the last three months. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 19% in three years.
While this past week has detracted from the company's one-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
Because EchoStar made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last year EchoStar saw its revenue shrink by 47%. We're a little surprised to see the share price pop 113% in the last year. It just goes to show the market doesn't always pay attention to the reported numbers. It's quite likely the revenue fall was already priced in, anyway.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on EchoStar
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that EchoStar shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 113% over the last year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 8% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with EchoStar (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
EchoStar is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.