The Bank of Korea (BOK) is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 3.25% this week to bolster the Korean won amid the US dollar's recent surge, according to a Reuters poll.
Approximately 90% of the 38 economists surveyed between Nov 18 to 25, anticipate the central bank will keep rates steady on Thursday. Only four forecast a 25-basis-point cut.
This pause in the easing cycle, which began just last month, comes as the won has depreciated 2% in November. Analysts attribute this to concerns over inflationary pressures from US President-elect Donald Trump's policies and the intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Jun-yeong Kim, economist at DS Investment and Securities, highlighted the BOK's caution, citing "heightened FX volatility" due to what is termed "Trump trade" and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
While inflation remains below the 2% target and the economy faces challenges after narrowly avoiding recession, analysts believe the BOK will delay rate cuts until the won stabilises around the mid-1,300s against the dollar.
The won broke through 1,400 per US dollar this month for the first time since April. Expectations of continued dollar strength in 2025 suggest fewer rate cuts in South Korea than in the US, with Reuters polls projecting a 75-basis-point reduction by the BOK next year, compared to a full percentage point by the Federal Reserve.
Forecasts for South Korea's interest rates were revised to three 25-basis-point cuts in January-September 2025 from two cuts predicted earlier. Analysts cited risks to growth in an economy burdened by one of the world's highest household debt levels.
Among 25 economists who provided year-end projections, two-thirds foresee rates ending 2025 at 2.50% or lower, the central bank's neutral rate, while eight anticipate rates at 2.75% or higher.
"Current monetary policy settings are still restrictive and further rate cuts are likely," said Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ. She added that the slowing pace of household debt and housing price growth may offer the BOK some comfort in implementing these cuts.
Some economists anticipate the BOK may revise its 2025 economic growth forecast, currently at 2.1%, reflecting heightened risks.
路透社的一項民意調查顯示，在最近美元飆升的情況下，人們普遍預計韓國銀行（BOK）本週將把關鍵政策利率維持在3.25％，以提振韓元。
在11月18日至25日期間接受調查的38位經濟學家中，約有90％的人預計央行將在週四保持利率穩定。只有四個人預測將下調25個點子。
上個月才開始的寬鬆週期暫停，是在11月韓元貶值2％之際發生的。分析人士將其歸因於對美國當選總統唐納德·特朗普政策帶來的通貨膨脹壓力以及俄烏衝突加劇的擔憂。
DS Investment and Securities的經濟學家金俊英強調了韓國央行的謹慎態度，理由是所謂的 「特朗普貿易」 和聯儲局的鷹派立場導致 「外匯波動加劇」。
儘管通貨膨脹率仍低於2％的目標，經濟在勉強避免衰退後面臨挑戰，但分析師認爲，日本央行將推遲減息，直到韓元兌美元匯率穩定在1300年代中期左右。
本月韓元自4月以來首次突破每美元1,400美元。對2025年美元持續走強的預期表明，韓國的減息次數少於美國，路透社民意調查預計，韓國央行明年將減息75個點子，而聯儲局的減息幅度爲整整一個百分點。
韓國對利率的預測從先前預測的兩次減息修訂爲2025年1月至9月的三次25個點子的減息。分析師列舉了受全球最高家庭債務水平之一困擾的經濟體的增長風險。
在提供年終預測的25位經濟學家中，三分之二的人預計到2025年將利率爲2.50％或更低，即央行的中性利率，而八位經濟學家預計利率爲2.75％或更高。
澳新銀行經濟學家克里斯塔爾·譚表示：「當前的貨幣政策設置仍然是限制性的，有可能進一步減息。」她補充說，家庭債務和房價增長步伐放緩可能會讓日本央行在實施這些削減措施時感到放鬆。
一些經濟學家預計，日本央行可能會修改其2025年經濟增長預測，目前爲2.1％，這反映了風險的增加。
