他在周一最新发布的报告中强调，历史表明，① The s&p 500 index soared 26% in 2023 and is expected to rise 27% this year. Carson Group forecasts that the roi of usa stocks will be above the average annual return of about 10% next year. ② Research shows that since 1950, the s&p 500 index has had positive returns in the third year after rising 20% or more for two consecutive years on six occasions.
Financial Associated Press, November 26 (Editor: Huang Junzhi) The s&p 500 index soared 26% in 2023, and this year is expected to rise another 27%. As 2024 comes to a close, investors are currently more concerned about where the usa stocks will go next year.
According to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, while a "20% increase" may not be replicated in 2025, investors are likely to experience another year of significant increases.
In his latest report released on Monday, he emphasized that history suggests the usa stock market may continue its bullish trend next year, with the roi being above the average annual return of about 10%.
"Bears may be disappointed to find that strong returns after two consecutive years of over 20% gains are quite normal," he wrote.
According to Detrick's research, since 1950, there have been eight instances of the s&p 500 index rising 20% or more for two consecutive years. In these 8 cases, the usa stock market achieved positive returns in the following third year six times, with an overall average roi and median return of 12% and 13%, respectively.
"Therefore, the occurrence of rising over 20% for two consecutive years actually indicates that the roi for 2025 may be higher than average," he wrote.
According to the above report, the fundamental reasons Detrick is bullish on the usa stock market next year include a robust overall economy and rising corporate profits.
He pointed out, "When your economy continues to rise unexpectedly, you tend to see solid performance. The eps of the s&p 500 index is expected to reach $269 next year, a 19% increase from the beginning of 2023."
"There is no holy grail in investing, but when we see corporate earnings expectations hitting new highs, we consider it an important reason for increasing shareholding in stocks, and we are still doing so," he added.
On the other hand, Detrick also said, "Bull markets last longer than you might think," with an average duration of five and a half years.
He noted that the current bull market just turned "two years old" this October, indicating that the usa stock market still has significant upside potential, even after experiencing a strong bull market rally over the past two years.
Recently, as President-elect Trump is set to officially take office in the White House next January, the usa stock market is rejoicing, and Wall Street is abuzz with bullish sentiment, raising the target points for the s&p 500 index for next year.
For instance, deutsche bank set the s&p 500 index target point for the end of 2025 at 7000 points on Monday, anticipating strong earnings growth for usa companies to continue into next year; Barclays raised its target price from 6500 points to 6600 points, citing a strong usa economy, gradually easing inflation, and the potential strong profit growth of large technology companies.
