The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that from a fundamental point of view, the boom in the transportation sector is closely related to the macro environment. The import and export boom boosts port throughput and cross-border logistics demand, consumer and real estate infrastructure investment supports express delivery and ToB logistics needs, and the restoration of travel demand is driving the recovery of high-speed rail profits at Airlines Airport. At present, we have seen that the basic direction of transportation is improving. With confidence that the policy will boost domestic demand, we recommend two main investment lines in the transportation sector: 1) the inflection point of supply and demand has dropped, and it is recommended to focus on the aviation sector where consumption can be selected; 2) the pattern is improving, domestic demand fixes bullish options, and it is recommended to focus on hazardous chemical logistics, domestic trade transportation, and direct express delivery sectors.

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Aviation: Supply growth is expected to be low, and it will gradually reach an inflection point between supply and demand

The supply and demand relationship in the aviation industry has continued to improve since 2024. The production capacity utilization rate during the peak season has exceeded 2019 levels, and the trend is expected to continue.

Supply side: The rate at which airlines have introduced aircraft has slowed since 2020, and the cumulative growth rate is expected to be only 15% at the end of 2024 compared to 2019. Currently, the production capacity of Boeing Airbus is less than that of 2018-2019. GE production of major engine manufacturers declined year-on-year, and there is a backlog of orders due to insufficient production capacity. It is expected that the speed of aircraft introduction in the future will still be low in single digits.

Demand side: At present, passenger traffic has surpassed 2019. The number of civil aviation passengers in the entire industry increased 11% from January to October compared to 2019. Among them, the number of international passengers of domestic airlines in October was 97% of 2019. Demand has resumed natural growth, compounded by the release of policies to stimulate consumption, and the number of civil aviation passengers is expected to maintain high single-digit growth. The inflection point of supply and demand is expected to be achieved in the future. It is expected that supply will increase 3% year on year and demand will increase 8% year on year in 2025; the cumulative supply growth rate is 18% compared to 2019, and the cumulative demand growth rate is 19%, and the capacity utilization rate will exceed 2019. In the review history, airline profits will improve drastically under supply and demand optimization. Combined with recent improvements in cost-side oil price factors, it is expected that airline profits will be further released.

Logistics: Focus on track segmentation opportunities in the logistics sector

Hazardous chemicals logistics: Hazardous chemicals logistics warehousing and capacity approval is relatively strict, leading qualifications are good. At the same time, capacity and storage resources have been increased through mergers and acquisitions, and leading market share continues to increase. Improving domestic demand will increase the corresponding chemical boom. The increase in profits in the distribution business is mainly due to rising chemical prices, and the increase in profits in the transportation business mainly depends on demand for chemicals. If domestic demand improves under fiscal stimulus, demand for hazardous chemical logistics-related businesses such as transportation, warehousing, and distribution is expected to increase under improved operating rates and inventories.

Domestic trade consolidation: Protected by policies, domestic trade shipping has relative entry barriers, and the competitive pattern of the industry is relatively good. The top three shipping companies account for about 80% of the capacity. The goods transported by the domestic trade consolidation industry include consumer goods, industrial products, resource goods, etc., and are related to the overall macroeconomy. Improving domestic demand will drive an increase in physical workload. Corresponding transportation demand will improve, freight rates will be more flexible, and at the same time, there is broad market space for fragmentation and restructuring.

Direct express delivery: The direct express delivery sector has a good pattern. SF Express accounts for 64% of the time-sensitive goods market, while the high-end direct express delivery market shows an oligopoly pattern between SF Express and JD. Compared with traditional e-commerce express delivery companies, the demand structure of direct express delivery companies is more diversified. In addition to the time-sensitive goods business, SF Express also includes express delivery, cold chain, same city, supply chain, and international business. It is optimistic that the growth rate of the commercial goods and high-end consumer express delivery market will accelerate in a processional period, and the growth in logistics business such as express delivery and cold chain. JD Logistics focuses on integrated supply chain logistics services. Over the years, it has continuously optimized the logistics network. Fully integrated into the Taobao Tmall platform, business volume from third parties is expected to grow, and scale effects and lean cost control have achieved rapid profit growth.

Recommended Combinations

Air China (601111.SH,00753), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH,01055), Spring Airlines (601021.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), Milkway (603713.SH), Hongchuan Zhihui (002930.SZ), Xingtong (), Shenghang (001205.SZ), Zhonggu Logistics (US), SF Express Holdings (002352.SZ,06936), JD Logistics (02618). 603209.SH 603565.SH

Risk warning

There is a risk that the macroeconomy falls short of expectations, the risk of a sharp rise in oil prices, and the risk of the RMB exchange rate depreciation.