Since 2020, Novo Nordisk's stock price has continued to reach new highs, with the highest increase of more than 450% during this period, equivalent to more than 30% annualized revenue. Based in the field of diabetes treatment, this century-old pharmaceutical company has attracted the attention of global investors with its breakthrough results in the field of obesity treatment.

In the first three quarters of this year, Novo Nordisk's overall sales increased 23% year over year, and sales of drugs to treat obesity increased by as much as 44%. Among them, the star product Wegovy (simeglutide injection 2.4mg) increased 76% year over year, becoming the “core engine” driving the company's performance growth.

The reason behind all this is the phenomenal performance of Wegovy (Chinese product name: Novo & Ying). Meanwhile, Novartis, the “magic drug,” which has received much attention in the market, was officially launched in the Chinese market in November.

1. Unraveling the true face of obesity: global challenges and huge market opportunities

Obesity isn't just about weight anymore.

With the development of the times, obesity has quietly changed from a “personal life problem” to a global public health crisis. According to “The Lancet” data, there are currently more than 1 billion obese people around the world battling this disease. Behind the huge numbers are huge medical and economic burdens, as well as increasing pressure on public health.

According to statistics, direct medical expenses due to overweight in the US in 2020 were about 313 billion US dollars, and the total economic impact reached 726.1 billion US dollars, which already accounts for 3.5% of the total GDP; in China, the economic burden due to obesity also reached 283.3 billion US dollars in 2020. In the upcoming 2025 year, China may lose about 459 billion US dollars due to overweight citizens, which also accounts for 2.4% of the estimated GDP.

Behind all of this is a huge medical market and urgent health care needs that need to be met.

Modern medicine has demonstrated that obesity is a complex chronic disease caused by the interaction of biological, genetic, social, psychological, and environmental factors. It is its complexity that causes obesity to affect human health in a comprehensive and multifaceted manner, and may reduce patients' quality of life and life expectancy. Overweight and obesity are known to be linked to more than 200 diseases, including cardiovascular disease, certain types of cancer, and type 2 diabetes.

Currently, cardiovascular disease has become the main cause of death for obese patients. Compared to people with normal body weight, even obese people with normal metabolism have a 96% increase in the risk of heart failure and a 49% increase in the risk of coronary heart disease.

In addition, there are psychological problems associated with the effects of obesity and obesity discrimination. Movement disorders caused by obesity itself, the serious effects of obesity on metabolism, and misconceptions surrounding the causes of obesity can significantly increase the mental burden of obese people.

The situation is so serious. However, in the past few decades, there has been a lack of effective treatment for obesity clinically. Professional medical institutions have hesitated to promote related treatments. A large number of weight loss supplements with unclear effects and questionable safety have become popular, and patients' interests have been greatly harmed.

It is in this context that Novo Nordisk sticks to the field of obesity treatment and addresses challenges with breakthrough innovation. In June of this year, Novartis was approved for long-term adult weight management in China, and launched in China in November, marking that this major innovative product has officially become an accessible choice for obese people in China, opening up a new pattern of obesity treatment in China in a scientific, effective and safe manner.

2. Breakthroughs and stories of simeglutide: the multiple potential of “magic” molecules

Simeglutide, the core component of Novartis, was not initially created for obesity. Originally a “star” in diabetes treatment, this ingredient can help patients significantly lower blood sugar levels due to its unique GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) mechanism of action.

However, in a long-term study on diabetes treatment, researchers were surprised to discover that simeglutide can cause significant weight loss. This unexpected discovery inspired Novo Nordisk to further explore the efficacy of simeglutide.

After years of verification, Novartis not only has remarkable weight loss effects, but its weekly injection form has also greatly improved patient compliance, making it a safe, convenient, and effective obesity treatment option on the current market.

The clinical efficacy of Novartis was fully verified in the STEP series of studies. The data showed that the average weight loss rate was about 17%. Furthermore, its curative effects are not only numerical weight loss, but also improve many metabolic indicators, have clear cardiovascular protection effects, prevent and improve obesity-related complications, and bring multiple health benefits to patients.

At the same time, in addition to curative effects, as a chronic disease drug used for a long time, simeglutide showed the most comprehensive data safety in the GLP-1RA drug market. Up to now, simeglutide has been fully tested in large-scale real-world data research and complete clinical research and development projects (SUSTAIN test, PIONEER test, STEP test, SELECT test, OASIS test), and has accumulated more than 22 million patient exposure years of use experience. These data guarantee the safety of simeglutide.

Novo Nordisk is still further exploring the potential of simeglutide in different dosages and multiple indications to bring multi-dimensional health improvements to a larger patient population.

Currently, the scope of application development for simeglutide has gradually expanded from diabetes and obesity to various fields such as chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, fatty hepatitis (MASH) associated with metabolic dysfunction (MASH), and Alzheimer's disease. These explorations demonstrate Novo Nordisk's deep scientific understanding of the disease and its firm determination to further explore the potential of its products through multi-indication strategies.

Among them, some existing clinical data that have revealed positive results provide strong support for the potential of pipeline layout. These results not only confirm the multi-indication potential of simeglutide, but also highlight Novo Nordisk's vision and scientific drive in the field of chronic disease treatment. By exploring the multiple health benefits of simeglutide, Novo Nordisk has not only further enriched its product pipeline, but also brought comprehensive health improvements to more patients.

3. 100 years of persistence and innovation: Novo Nordisk's “slow” and “fast”

If we look back at history, we will find that Novo Nordisk's success was far from achieved overnight. What is behind this is more than 100 years of diligent exploration in the field of metabolic diseases. Novo Nordisk's starting point is rooted in innovation.

In 1923, in order to save his wife's life, Danish scientist Professor August Crowe co-founded the NORD Insulin Laboratory (the predecessor of Novo Nordisk) and began commercial production of insulin. This move not only changed the history of diabetes treatment, but also brought hope to diabetics around the world who were struggling with the disease at the time.

After more than 100 years of current events, Novo Nordisk is still deeply involved in the field of diabetes treatment, but at the same time, the company is also setting its sights on more chronic diseases related to it.

This makes it necessary to mention Novo Nordisk's strategic nature “to slow down”. In the process of developing drugs for metabolic diseases, the company is never in a hurry to pursue rapid breakthroughs in the short term. Instead, it paves a new path for subsequent clinical development through detailed preliminary research and in-depth understanding of disease mechanisms. The more solid the early research stage is, the more efficient the subsequent work will be.

This strategy stems from Novo Nordisk's deep accumulation in the field of metabolic diseases, ensuring that the company always surpasses its competitors and is in a leading position in global chronic disease treatment.

“Slow” reflects Novo Nordisk's R&D approach, and also symbolizes the company's long-term commitment and deep investment in chronic diseases. In the “slow” process, Novo Nordisk thoroughly understood patients' health conditions and treatment situations, and therefore attached great importance to every possible innovative project. From early research on disease mechanisms to solid pre-clinical preparation, Novo Nordisk has used “slow” to ensure the efficiency and safety of drug development. This is a mystery that has stood in the industry for 100 years.

Looking forward to the future, based on GLP-1RA therapy, Novo Nordisk will continue to actively explore obesity treatment drugs with different targets and mechanisms of action, such as CagrisEMA — a combination of simeglutide and the long-acting amylin (amylin) analog Cagrilintide, which may bring more major surprises to the weight loss market.

4. Growing Market and Shareholder Value: Novartis Future Prospects

Novo Nordisk's deep cultivation and persistence in the field of metabolism has brought breakthrough drugs to patients and rich benefits to investors. Since 2020, Novo Nordisk's stock price has continued to reach new highs, with the highest increase of more than 450% during this period, equivalent to more than 30% annualized revenue.

Currently, Novo Nordisk's leading position in the field of obesity treatment and the growth prospects brought about by continuous innovation are still very promising. As the core product of Novo Nordisk's obesity treatment pipeline, Wegovy has achieved remarkable sales results in many markets around the world since its overseas launch.

According to the financial report for the first three quarters of 2024, Novo Nordisk's overall sales increased by 23%, while sales of GLP-1 products in the obesity treatment field increased by 44%, showing that the obesity treatment market contributed greatly to the company's performance.

In the third quarter of this year, Wegovy's revenue was about 2.497 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 40% month-on-month, breaking the market's doubts about the slowing growth rate of the weight reduction market. In the first nine months of 2024, sales in Greater China increased by 10% at a fixed exchange rate (CER), mainly driven by sales growth of GLP-1 products and insulin products in the diabetes treatment sector. I believe that with the official launch of Novo & Ying's sales in China, the Chinese market will also give good feedback, further increase the revenue of Novo Nordisk's weight reduction pipeline and provide investors with more returns.

epilogue

This year, the Health and Health Commission launched a three-year “Year of Weight Management” campaign; the release of the first authoritative guide for the diagnosis and treatment of obesity, the “Obesity Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines (2024 Edition)”, also provided an important basis for the scientific diagnosis and treatment of obesity. These all indicate that the country is paying more attention to the prevention and treatment of obesity, a chronic disease at the national level.

As a global leader in obesity treatment, Novo Nordisk responds with practical actions, bringing more scientific and efficient treatment options to obese patients through the introduction of the innovative drug Novo Ying, and helping patients manage their weight and improve their quality of life for a long time through digital patient service platforms, etc. At the same time, as a leader in the field of obesity treatment, Novo Nordisk continues to pay attention to and call for the safe and rational use of prescription drugs.

In the future, Novo Nordisk will continue to be deeply involved in the treatment of obesity and other serious chronic diseases, using world-leading scientific innovation to help Chinese patients move towards a healthier future.