他们预测10年期国债收益率在第三季度结束时跌至4.10%，然后将回升，明年收于4.25%。A team of strategists at jpmorgan, including Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Liam Wash, wrote in a report that the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield is expected to decline slightly for most of next year, remaining largely unchanged by the end of 2025 compared to current levels.
The bank expects that as the u.s. economic growth rate slightly declines to around 2%, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another 100 basis points before the end of 2025, short-term u.s. treasury performance will outperform long-term ones next year.
Strategists predict that the 2-year treasury yield will close at 3.75% by year-end next year; in contrast, it reported 4.28% on Tuesday.
They predict the 10-year treasury yield will fall to 4.10% by the end of the third quarter, then rebound to close at 4.25% next year.
The team recommends maintaining a long position in 2-year u.s. treasury and betting that the yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year treasuries will widen.
"Given the significant reduction in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts over the past few months, there is room for a moderate decline in yields, while the spreads on high-quality credit bonds continue to tighten."
The bank anticipates that the rise in term premiums will cause long-term u.s. treasuries to underperform next year, resulting in a steeper yield curve.
They stated that the inflation expectations indicators in the bond market — break-even rates — are expected to remain at a high level until the first half of 2025.
The bank predicts that the net issuance of u.s. treasury bonds next year will be close to this year's level, although they expect the Treasury Department to announce an expansion of the scale of note and bond auctions for several consecutive quarters in November 2025.
