Jade Bird Fire (SZSE:002960) Sheds CN¥486m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years
Jade Bird Fire (SZSE:002960) Sheds CN¥486m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years
Jade Bird Fire Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002960) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been disappointing. In that time, the share price dropped 58%. So it's good to see it climbing back up. The rise has some hopeful, but turnarounds are often precarious.
青鸟消防股份有限公司(SZSE:002960)的股东应该很高兴看到上个季度的股价上涨了16%。但这并不能改变过去三年的回报令人失望这一事实。在那段时间里,股价下跌了58%。所以看到它重新攀升是件好事。涨势让人心怀希望,但扭转局面往往不稳定。
After losing 5.8% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
在过去一周下跌了5.8%之后,值得调查公司的基本面,以了解我们可以从过去的表现中推断出什么。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
引用巴菲特的话顺便说一下,“船只将环游世界,但支持地球平面学会的人将大有可为。 在市场上,价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异...”通过比较EPS和股价变化,我们可以了解到投资者对公司的态度随时间的变化程度。
Jade Bird Fire saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 5.0% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 25% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
青鸟消防公司过去三年的每股收益以每年5.0%的复合速率下降。这种EPS的减少速度比股价每年下降25%的速度慢。因此,市场似乎在过去对该业务过于自信。
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
该公司的每股收益(随时间的推移)如下图所示(单击可查看确切数字)。
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Dive deeper into Jade Bird Fire's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Jade Bird Fire's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
通过查看青鸟消防的收益、营业收入和现金流的互动图表,更深入了解青鸟消防的关键指标。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Jade Bird Fire's TSR for the last 3 years was -56%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是考虑总股东回报率(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。 TSR包括任何分拆或折价的资本增发价值,以及基于股息再投资的任何分红,假设股息再投资。可以说,TSR提供了股票所生成的回报更全面的图片。 然而,事实情况是,青鸟消防过去3年的TSR为-56%,高于前面提到的股价回报。 这在很大程度上是其分红支付所致!
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
While the broader market gained around 5.3% in the last year, Jade Bird Fire shareholders lost 31% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Jade Bird Fire you should know about.
尽管过去一年整体市场涨幅约为5.3%,青鸟消防股东却损失了31%(即使包括分红在内)。 然而,请记住,即使是最好的股票有时也会在十二个月的时间内表现不佳。 长期投资者不会那么沮丧,因为在过去五年中,他们每年都能获得2%的回报。 如果基本数据继续表明长期可持续增长,当前的抛售可能是值得考虑的机会。 我发现长期来看股价作为业务表现的一种替代方法非常有趣。 但要真正获得洞察力,我们也需要考虑其他信息。比如,考虑风险。 每家公司都有风险,而我们已经发现青鸟消防1个警告信号,您应该知晓。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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