PCE是指个人消费支出价格指数，这是美联储首选的通胀指标。Goldman Sachs said that US President-elect Trump's latest tariff proposals may put upward pressure on US inflation.
On Monday, Trump said he would levy an additional 10% tariff on goods from major Asian countries and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a report that the proposed tariffs will cause a significant rise in US consumer prices.
Hatzius said, “According to our rule of thumb, for every 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, the core PCE rises by 0.1%. We estimate that if the proposed tariff increase is implemented, the core PCE will rise 0.9%.”
PCE refers to the personal consumption expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator.
Tariff-related core PCE growth could disrupt the calculation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones said that the October PCE will be announced on Wednesday, and the core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year over year. In other words, inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and tariffs are likely to widen that gap.
Traders have been lowering expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025, but it is unclear to what extent this is due to election results rather than the resilience of the US economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that once the details are clear, the central bank will consider the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policy changes on the direction of inflation.
What is certain is that it remains to be seen whether the tariffs will be implemented at the level proposed by Trump, or what exceptions may be made. The president-elect said that tariffs are conditional on changes in immigration policies and drug enforcement, particularly fentanyl. Some of Trump's advisers and supporters believe that the tariffs he proposed during his campaign were a bargaining position rather than an established policy.
Hatzius, on the other hand, said that Canada and Mexico seem more likely than major Asian countries to avoid imposing full tariffs.
According to Goldman Sachs's calculations, these three countries account for 43% of US imports, and these tariffs will bring in slightly less than $300 billion in revenue each year.
