① As gas prices rise during the heating season, how popular are Hong Kong gas stocks? ② Institutional perspectives are still divided; what risks are worth paying attention to?
Financial Services Association, November 27 (Editor: Feng Yi) Today, Hong Kong gas stocks are collectively active, becoming a new hot spot in the short-term market.
As of press release, Xinao Energy (02688.HK) has risen more than 5%, Binhai Investment (02886.HK) has risen nearly 4%, Beijing Gas Blue Sky (06828.HK) has risen more than 3%, and individual stocks such as Volkswagen General (01635.HK) and China Gas (00384.HK) have followed suit.
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According to the news, international natural gas prices have recently skyrocketed, driven by cold weather forecasts and rising prices of liquefied natural gas feedstocks.
At the trend level, Dutch TTF natural gas futures prices have continued to rise since September, and there are signs of accelerating growth recently.
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Goldman Sachs analysts say that if European gas supply is tight this winter, Asian liquefied natural gas prices could soar to more than $20 per million British thermal units.
It is worth noting that with the opening of the winter heating model, domestic demand for natural gas has also entered a peak season. Recently, Jiangsu, Jilin, Beijing, Shanghai and other places have successively issued relevant notices and initiated gas price linkage mechanisms.
Cinda Securities analysts Zuo Qianming and Li Chunchi also mentioned in a report released earlier that China's natural gas production increased 8.4% year-on-year in October.
At the same time, the total apparent domestic gas consumption in the first 9 months was 318.37 billion square meters, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Among them, consumption in September was 33.88 billion square meters, up 14.4% year on year, and the growth rate was higher than the cumulative value during the year.
Furthermore, the market previously feared that Trump's energy policy would disrupt the balance between supply and demand in the global market.
There are reports that Trump's transition team is preparing to launch an extensive energy plan within a few days of taking office. Trump plans to scrap Biden's clean energy plan, emphasizing the role of natural gas resources. Trump will speed up drilling licenses for oil and gas on the land and hold more sales.
However, Goldman Sachs said that Trump's approval of the LNG project would only increase supply starting in 2027. However, as of press release, US natural gas futures fell 3% during the day, and there has been a correction.
CITIC Construction Investment futures analyst Dong Dandan's report also pointed out last week that after the Arctic cold tide ended, the phased benefit support on the European gas demand side subsided. Currently, Northeast Asia has accumulated a considerable amount of natural gas stocks. If the weather in Northeast Asia is not as cold as expected but warm, it may put pressure on the global natural gas market.
CITIC Construction Investment Futures believes that considering a combination of fundamental and emotional factors, TTF natural gas futures prices may also reach a phased peak at the current position.