1. On November 27 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.12%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.23%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.38%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.68%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.03%, the French CAC40 index fell 1.37%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.13%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 0.42% to $69.34 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.37% to $72.59 per barrel.

Market news

Trading reminder: US stocks were closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving Day and closed 3 hours early on Friday. November 28 (Thursday) is the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the US stock market will be closed for one day. November 29 (Friday) is the day after Thanksgiving. US stocks will be closed 3 hours early, that is, before 02:00 Beijing time the next day.

The US PCE is expected to show inflationary stickiness in October, or strengthen the Federal Reserve's easing strategy. The US PCE price index data for October will be released on the evening of November 27 (Wednesday), Beijing time. This inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve is thought to show stubborn price pressure and will reinforce the Fed's cautious attitude about future interest rate cuts. The market currently expects the US PCE price index to rise 2.3% year on year in October, up from 2.1% in September; the October core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 2.8% year on year — this will be the biggest year-on-year increase since April, and higher than the previous value of 2.7%, up 0.2% month on month. Meanwhile, other data to be released on the same day is expected to show resilience in consumer spending and steady growth in revenue. The market currently expects that US personal spending will increase 0.4% month-on-month in October, lower than the previous value of 0.5%; US personal income is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month in October, which is the same as the previous value.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman: It is wise to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts as the Federal Reserve approaches neutral interest rates. Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said that as the Federal Reserve approaches what it believes is neutral in monetary policy, it is “perfectly wise” to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. In an interview, Goulsby said, “To figure out what is a neutral level and what is restrictive, the field guide version includes looking around to see how the conditions are showing.” “You can't do this in two weeks; it takes a little while. So in this case it might make sense to slow down.” Goulsby is the voting committee of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve in 2025. He has always been one of the Federal Reserve's more outspoken dovish. Goulsby said on Monday that “it is clear” that the Federal Reserve “is on a path that will lead to lower interest rates, closer to what you might call neutral.”

Trump waved the tariff stick, and Citi said aluminum and steel were the most affected metals. Citigroup analysts said that US President-elect Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and aluminum and steel will be the most affected metals. Analysts led by Alexander Hacking said that these two US trading partners are America's largest metal suppliers, and Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imported metals will cause steel and aluminum prices to rise across the US. Analysts said in a November 26 report that the 25% tariffs announced by Trump on Monday could cause steel prices to rise by $100 to $150 per short ton.

Individual stock news

Recovery in the PC market stalled, and Dell Technologies (DELL.US) Q3 revenue fell short of expectations. Dell Technology's third-quarter revenue increased 10% year over year to $24.4 billion, below analysts' average forecast of $24.6 billion. Under non-GAAP accounting standards, net profit was $1.54 billion, up 11% year over year; diluted earnings per share were $2.15, better than analysts' average forecast of $2.05, compared to $1.88 for the same period last year. Looking ahead, Dell Technologies expects revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 to be around $24.5 billion, less than analysts' average expectations of $25.4 billion; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $2.40 and $2.60, while analysts expect an average of $2.66.

The PC market is recovering slowly, and HP (HPQ.US) Q1 earnings guidance falls short of expectations. HP Q4 revenue increased 1.7% year over year to 14.1 billion US dollars, slightly higher than market expectations. This is the second consecutive quarter of the company's year-on-year increase in revenue, after eight consecutive quarters of decline; excluding some projects, earnings per share were $0.93, which is in line with market expectations. The printing business's revenue increased 1% to $4.5 billion, the first expansion of the business since the end of 2021. Analysts had predicted a drop of close to 4%. The profit guidance for the current quarter announced by HP fell short of expectations, indicating that the PC market's recovery from years of sluggishness has been frustrated. HP predicts earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, excluding some projects, of $0.70 to $0.76, and the market expects $0.86. HP also expects earnings of $3.45 to $3.75 per share for the fiscal year 2025, and the market expects $3.60.

Nordstrom (JWN.US) was unafraid of weak retail sales. Q3 results exceeded expectations and raised annual guidance. Nordstrom's Q3 revenue was $3.347 billion, which is generally in line with market expectations. After dilution, earnings per share were $0.27, exceeding general market expectations. In the third quarter, the company's total comparable sales increased by 4.0%. The total value of goods (GMV) increased by 5.3%. Compared to 2023, the company's anniversary sales schedule changed, and the week-long event moved from the third quarter to the second quarter, which had a negative impact on revenue by about 100 basis points.

YY.US Q3 net profit decreased 25% year over year, and live streaming revenue fell 11% year over year. Huanju's Q3 revenue was $0.5587 billion, down 1.5% from $0.5671 billion in the same period last year; net profit attributable to Huanju Group controlling interests and common shareholders under non-US GAAP was US$61.2 million, down 24.6% from US$81.2 million in the same period of the previous year; and earnings per ADS after dilution were US$1.07, compared to US$1.22 in the same period last year. Live streaming revenue for the third quarter was US$0.4395 billion, down 11.4% from US$0.4958 billion in the same period last year; revenue from other businesses was US$0.1192 billion, up 67.2% year on year. Looking ahead, Huanju expects revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be between US$0.546 billion and US$0.563 billion.

YI.US (YI.US) had revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, achieving operating profit for three consecutive quarters. 1 Pharmaceutical Network achieved revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, with gross profit of 0.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; non-GAAP operating profit was 7.1 million yuan. It has achieved operating profit for three consecutive quarters, and has also achieved positive operating cash flow for three consecutive quarters. Despite the challenges brought about by the weak consumer market and pressure on downstream pharmacies, 1 Pharmaceutical Network's performance in the third quarter was steady, showing the company's resilience in operation and management.

Noah Wealth (NOAH.US)'s net revenue for the third quarter was 0.684 billion yuan, and the international business grew vigorously. Noah Wealth's net revenue for the third quarter was $0.684 billion. By business, the wealth management business revenue was 0.465 billion yuan, and the asset management business revenue was 0.208 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% over the previous year. Subregionally, net revenue from overseas increased by 28.9% year-on-year to 0.3769 billion yuan, mainly due to revenue growth of 42.5% and 42.4% respectively from overseas investment products and insurance products; net revenue from mainland China was 0.3068 billion yuan. Operating profit of 0.2408 billion yuan was recorded during the period, up 79.7% month-on-month, mainly benefiting from an 11.0% increase in net revenue, while operating costs and expenses fell 8.1%. The operating profit margin was 35.2%, up 2 percentage points from 33.2% in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.1344 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7% over the previous month.

Key economic data and event forecasts

21:30 Beijing time: Revised value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the third quarter (%), the initial monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October (%), the number of US jobless claims for the week ending November 23 (10,000), and the initial monthly US wholesale inventory rate for October (%).

23:00 Beijing time: US monthly personal expenditure rate (%) in October, US PCE price index in October (%), US monthly rate of existing home contract sales index after the October seasonal adjustment (%).

23:30 Beijing time: Changes in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 22 (10,000 barrels).