因布仓、估值和价格差异极端，2025年国际股市相比美国股市的表现可能会趋同或更佳，但首先需要贸易和地缘政治方面的形势明确。J.P. Morgan said that the current phase of polarized regional market performance is likely to continue until the first half of 2025, as investors will need to absorb trade uncertainty that may heat up.
Strategists such as Mislav Matejka wrote that the trend in dollar and bond yields is also important. Coupled with rising geopolitical uncertainty, this may mean that the stock market's performance at the beginning of the year will be more mixed.
It doesn't seem excessive to say that the international market multiples are still high. The US valuation is still high, but the relative interest rate spread is likely to remain high for a longer period of time.
Due to extreme differences in positions, valuations, and prices, the international stock market may converge or perform better than the US stock market in 2025, but first, a clear trade and geopolitical situation is needed.
The European EPS growth rate is expected to weaken in 2025, far lower than the 8.4% generally believed by the market.
