Mislav Matejka领导的摩根大通策略师团队在周三发布的一份报告中写道：“目前地区市场表现两极分化的阶段可能会延续下去。尽管国际市场的估值倍数并不高，而美国市场显得过高，但二者之间的差距可能会在一段时间内保持较高水平。”① So far this year, the S&P 500 index, which is the benchmark index, has risen 26% to record highs many times; ② After Trump won the election, investors' preferences for US assets have further strengthened as traders expect his policies to increase global trade tensions.
Financial Services, November 28 (Editor Xia Junxiong) J.P. Morgan strategists expect that unless geopolitical and trade policy risks subside, the US stock market will continue to lead the global market next year.
So far this year, the S&P 500 index, which is the benchmark index, has risen 26%, hitting record highs several times. This is mainly due to the strong performance of the US economy, the trend of artificial intelligence (AI), and the start of a cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of falling inflation.
A team of J.P. Morgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a report released on Wednesday: “The current phase of polarization in regional market performance is likely to continue. Although the valuation multiples in the international market are not high, and the US market appears to be too high, the gap between the two is likely to remain high for some time.”
Since this year, MSCI's global indices, excluding the US, have returned only 3.5%. The valuation gap is also widening, and the expected price-earnings ratio of US stocks has reached a record 60% premium compared to the international market.
Investors' preferences for US assets strengthened further after Donald Trump won the election, as traders expected his policies to heighten global trade tensions.
The J.P. Morgan strategist pointed out that given the extreme allocation of US stocks and their valuation and performance gap with the international market, the performance of the international market may catch up with or be close to the US market. But at the same time, they said, “However, before making changes, we first need more clarity on trade and geopolitics.”
Matejka is cautious about the stock market in the first half of next year. He advises investors to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy, dollar trend, and corporate profit growth expectations, especially for the European market. He believes that the current forecast is too optimistic.
Matejka said, “Combining these factors, combined with increased geopolitical uncertainty, may mean that the performance at the beginning of next year will be more mixed, as these series of pressures will be resolved and there will be a recovery thereafter.”
It is worth mentioning that Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, another strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase, predicted in Wednesday's report that the S&P 500 index would rise to 6,500 points.
Lakos-Bujas's prediction of the US stock market's performance this year has proven to be too conservative. He previously predicted a target position of 4,200 points for the S&P 500 index in 2024.
