1 Magnificent Canadian Dividend Stock Down 32% to Buy and Hold Forever
1 Magnificent Canadian Dividend Stock Down 32% to Buy and Hold Forever
For years, Canadian telecom stocks were seen as some of the best long-term dividend stocks you could buy, with BCE (TSX:BCE) being the leader in the space.
多年來,加拿大的電信股票被視爲一些最佳的長期分紅股票,其中BCE(tsx:BCE)是該領域的領軍者。
However, recently, the industry has become even more competitive, and capital expenditures have been significantly increased for years now as these companies build out both their fibre and 5G infrastructures simultaneously.
然而,最近,該行業變得更加競爭激烈,這些公司多年來的資本支出已經顯著增加,因爲它們同時建設他們的光纖和5g概念基礎設施。
These investments were necessary for the long-term growth and sustainability of these companies, and the infrastructure that's been constructed predominantly consists of long-life assets that should help BCE and its peers generate significant cash flow for years to come.
這些投資對於這些公司的長期增長和可持續性是必要的,目前建設的基礎設施主要由長壽命資產組成,這些資產應該有助於BCE及其同行們未來多年產生可觀的現金流。
However, in the near term, the increased spending has led to higher debt for BCE, and a growing payout ratio that investors and analysts are concerned about is becoming unsustainable.
但是,短期內增加的支出導致了BCE的債務增加,投資者和分析師擔心的日益增長的支付比率已變得難以持續。
In fact, after making yet another $5 billion investment on an acquisition, just weeks after selling its stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment for roughly $4.7 billion, BCE announced that it would only maintain its dividend in 2025 rather than continue with its annual increases to the dividend.
事實上,在進行了另一筆50億投資收購後,僅僅幾周後以約47億出售了其在Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment的股權後,BCE宣佈將於2025年僅保持其分紅派息而不再繼續進行年度增長。
So, with BCE trading 32% off its 52-week high and now offering a dividend yield of more than 10%, let's look at whether it's one of the best Canadian dividend stocks you can buy now.
因此,考慮到BCE股價較其52周高位下跌了32%,並且目前提供的股息率超過10%,讓我們看看它是否是您現在可以購買的最佳加拿大股息股票之一。
Is BCE one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now?
BCE是否是您現在可以購買的最佳加拿大股息股票之一?
Telecom stocks like BCE have traditionally been some of the best long-term Canadian dividend stocks you can buy due to the essential services they provide and the reliable cash flow they generate. However, BCE's rising payout ratio introduces a layer of uncertainty, which explains the significant discount on its shares.
像BCE這樣的電信股票一直以來都是您可以購買的最佳長期加拿大股息股票之一,因爲它們提供的基本服務以及它們所產生的可靠現金流。然而,BCE不斷增加的支付比率增加了一層不確定性,這解釋了其股票的顯着折扣。
Currently, BCE pays an annual dividend of $3.99 per share, requiring approximately $3.5 billion in cash flow to sustain it. However, analyst forecasts suggest the company will generate normalized earnings per share of $2.98 in 2024—down slightly from 2023. Additionally, BCE is expected to generate free cash flow just shy of $3 billion this year, which is also a modest decline from last year.
目前,BCE每股支付3.99美元的年度分紅,需要大約35億現金流來維持。然而,分析師預測表明,該公司預計2024年的每股規範盈利爲2.98美元,略低於2023年。此外,預計BCE今年的自由現金流將接近30億,也略有下降。
This shortfall between cash flow and dividend requirements understandably raises concerns for a company that's traditionally been one of the best Canadian dividend stocks you can buy.
這種現金流與分紅需求之間的差距,可以理解地引起人們對一家傳統上是你可以購買的最佳加拿大分紅股票之一的公司的擔憂。
However, BCE's position as a market leader in a defensive industry provides a degree of reassurance. Moreover, its recent acquisition is expected to extend its growth runway, potentially strengthening both its debt profile and its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term.
然而,BCE作爲防禦性行業中的市場領先者,提供了一定程度的安全感。而且,它最近的收購預計將延長其增長前景,可能加強其債務結構和維持長期分紅的能力。
It's also important to note that BCE has an investment-grade credit rating, and maintaining this status is a key priority for management. Therefore, BCE will likely focus heavily on debt management, deleveraging, and safeguarding its dividend, which is why it might just be one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now.
同樣重要的是,BCE擁有投資級信用評級,維持這一地位是管理層的首要任務。因此,BCE可能會重點關注債務管理、去槓桿和保護其股息,這就是爲什麼它可能是現在購買的最佳加拿大分紅股票之一。
Is this risk worth the reward?
這種風險是否值得回報?
Despite the increased risks, BCE's 32% discount and its status as a market leader in a defensive sector present a compelling opportunity for investors today.
儘管風險增加,BCE的32%折扣和作爲防禦性行業市場領導者的地位,爲投資者提供了今天一個引人注目的機會。
Furthermore, its more than 10% dividend yield is especially attractive, even if dividend growth remains muted for the foreseeable future.
此外,其超過10%的股息率尤其吸引人,即使在可預見的未來股息增長保持疲弱的情況下。
Therefore, investors willing to tolerate some short-term uncertainty could see significant long-term upside, not just from the significant dividends but also from potential capital gains as BCE deleverages and its valuation recovers. Plus, with the stock trading at such a significant discount, it's hard to ignore.
因此,願意忍受一些短期不確定性的投資者可能會看到顯著的長期上漲,不僅來自可觀的股息,還可能來自BCE去槓桿和其估值回升的潛在資本收益。而且,隨着股價交易在如此大幅度的折扣下,很難忽視。
For example, BCE is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.8 times, well below its 10-year average of 17.2 times and essentially the lowest it's ever been over the last decade.
例如, BCE 正在以 12.8 倍的未來市盈率進行交易,遠低於其 10 年的平均值 17.2 倍,實際上是過去十年中最低的水平。
Furthermore, its forward enterprise value (EV) to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ratio is currently just 7.1 times. That's also significantly lower than its 10-year average EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.4 times.
此外,其未來企業價值(EV)與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收入(EBITDA)比率目前僅爲 7.1 倍。這也明顯低於其 10 年平均 EV/EBITDA 比率 8.4 倍。
Therefore, given BCE's status as a dominant player in a highly essential industry, its long-term growth potential, and the substantial discount on its shares today, the risk-reward profile remains compelling.
因此,考慮到 BCE 作爲高度必不可少行業中的主導者、其長期增長潛力和如今股價上的大幅折扣,風險回報比仍然令人信服。
So, while the risks tied to its elevated debt and payout ratio shouldn't be overlooked, the strong likelihood that BCE will successfully navigate these short-term challenges suggests it could still be one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now.
因此,儘管其高負債和支付比率所帶來的風險不容忽視,但 BCE 成功應對這些短期挑戰的強大可能性表明它仍然可能是目前最佳的加拿大分紅股之一。