It is doubtless a positive to see that the New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002946) share price has gained some 60% in the last three months. If you look at the last three years, the stock price is down. But that's not so bad when you consider its market is down 17%.

While the last three years has been tough for New Hope Dairy shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, New Hope Dairy actually managed to grow EPS by 15% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

We're actually a quite surprised to see the share price down while EPS have grown strongly. So we'll have to take a look at other metrics to try to understand the price action.

With a rather small yield of just 1.1% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Revenue is actually up 8.2% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating New Hope Dairy further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that New Hope Dairy has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for New Hope Dairy in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, New Hope Dairy's TSR for the last 3 years was -8.7%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that New Hope Dairy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 5.0% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 1.5%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for New Hope Dairy that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.