3)CXO曙光已现：生物安全法案的不确定性开始反转，2024年2季度以来海外投融资持续回暖、订单复苏势头明显，CXO行业景气度有望逐步触底回升。推荐细分赛道龙头药明合联(02268)和金斯瑞(01548)。Jinwu Financial News | BOC International said that the pharmaceutical industry market has reached an inflection point. In 2025, it focuses on the two main lines of innovation+fundamental recovery: the pharmaceutical sector ended years of losing ground in the second half of 2024, and the bank is optimistic about the opportunity to continue this trend in 2025. The bank believes that: 1) in the short term, the macroeconomic environment recovery+interest rate cut cycle is expected to drive a beta opportunity for the overall sector to rebound; 2) α opportunities can be summarized into two main lines: a) outstanding ability to innovate and balance the potential of the product to go overseas; b) the bottom of the valuation after exhaustion plus a double hit opportunity for Davis with a reversal in performance.
The bank refers to 1) value return driven by overseas transactions of innovative drugs and product sales: 1) implementation of cross-border BD/mergers and acquisitions, overseas clinical/regulatory progress; 2) favorable policies for the whole chain; 3) new types of negotiations and subsequent sales volume under the trend of improving health insurance income and expenditure. We recommend Kangfang Biology (09926), Legendary Creatures (LEGN US), Genting Xinyao (01952), Connor (02162), etc.
2) The growth rate of prescription drug performance and valuation continues to rebound at the bottom: the impact of collection and compliance measures is compounded by the declining volume of new single product listings, and the leading revenue and net profit growth rate of Hong Kong stocks is expected to return or stabilize in double digits. We mainly recommend Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) and China Biopharmaceutical (01177). The bank also suggests focusing on pharmaceutical commercial circulation targets that have high dividend rates and are expected to benefit from improved fundamentals of the industry.
3) CXO Dawning has arrived: The uncertainty of the Biosafety Act has begun to reverse. Since the 2nd quarter of 2024, overseas investment and financing have continued to pick up, orders have clearly recovered, and the CXO industry is expected to gradually bottom up. We recommend the leading segmented racetrack Yao Ming Union (02268) and King's Rui (01548).
4) In the private medical service transformation, high-quality private hospitals are selected as targets: fiscal easing, implementation of a medical insurance prepayment system; specialty standards such as Hygeia Healthcare (06078), which have a low base rebound, strong certainty, and a good competitive pattern, are recommended. At the same time, focus on private medical services and medical and aesthetic standards with strong consumer attributes.
