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美日央行下月有大动作?日元连续升值,一度逼近150关口

Will the central banks of the US and Japan take major actions next month? The yen has been continuously appreciating, approaching the 150 threshold at one point.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Nov 27 20:59

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan may narrow.

Since this week, the yen has outperformed other mmf, and traders generally believe that the interest rate differential between the usa and japan will narrow next month.

On Wednesday, the yen broke through the 153, 152, and 151 levels against the usd in a single day, reaching a low of 150.46, the lowest level since October 22.

As of now, in the first three trading days of this week, the yen has increased by a total of 2.36%, and on Thursday, the yen fell slightly, currently quoted at 151.598.

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The interest rate differential between the US and Japan may narrow.

In this regard, strategists stated that the yen still has room for further appreciation, as the overnight index swap currently predicts that the possibility of japan's interest rate hike and the usa's rate cut both exceed 60%.

Takeshi Ishida, a forex strategist at Kansai Mirai Bank, stated that market attention to the shifts in the benchmark interest rates of japan and the usa is intensifying. 'If both central banks change their policies, the yen may appreciate to levels above 150.'

Carol Kong, forex strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said, 'We expect the FOMC to cut rates in December, and the Bank of Japan to raise rates, so there is still room for changes in the pricing of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.'

Regarding the usa, the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that officials believe there is still room for rate cuts, but it will only be in a "gradual manner."

On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated,considering another rate cut next month (December) is still appropriate.

Currently, the market anticipates a significant probability of a rate cut in December.

According to cme's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate in December is 35.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64.8%.

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In japan, the governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, previously hinted that policymakers might discuss interest rate hikes at the monetary policy meeting in December.

It is impossible to predict the outcome of the meeting now, with the next meeting scheduled for December, and there is still a month until then. A lot of data and information will emerge from now until that time.

Data shows that Japan's services PMI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in October, higher than the 2.8% increase in September.

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Tuesday that he would ask companies to implement "substantial" wage increases in next year's labor negotiations with unions.

Seisaku Kameda, a former chief economist at the Bank of Japan and current executive economist at Sompo Institute Plus, stated: "Service sector inflation is expanding, and although the momentum is not as strong as claimed by the Bank of Japan, the central bank must be satisfied with the rise in wages and service inflation."

He expects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December.

Furthermore, more than half of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates next month.

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