The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huafu Securities released a research report saying that bauxite supply continues to be tight, the CIF price of imported bauxite from Guinea has risen to 95 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot price of alumina continues to rise. On the supply side, the operating capacity is 43.759 million tons, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum is 97.23%. On the demand side, exports of raw aluminum, aluminum, and aluminum products have all increased recently. In terms of inventories, as of November 25, global aluminum stocks were 1.2871 million tons, -0.1261 million tons month-on-month, and +0.163 million tons year-on-year. Aluminum prices can be expected to rise during the peak season and expectations of US interest rate cuts and soft landings; in the medium to long term, domestic ceiling+energy shortages continue to disrupt, while demand for new energy sources remains strong, and the tight balance makes aluminum prices rise and fall easily.

The main views of Huafu Securities are as follows:

Alumina: Alumina production rebounded month-on-month in October, with net exports of 0.164 million tons

1) Supply: In October 2024, China's alumina production was 7.287 million tons, +6.5% month-on-month, +5.4% month-on-month; cumulative alumina production in January-October '24 was 68.868 million tons, +3.9% year on year; 2) Import and export: net alumina imports in October -0.164 million tons, -0.193 million tons/ -673.2% year on month, -0.066 million tons/ -67.1% month-on-month, January-October net alumina imports- -0.101 million tons, -123.3% YoY; 3) Profit: Ore supply relief was limited this month, and the total cost focus of alumina including tax continued to move upward. The monthly average was 2949.2 yuan/ton, and the average profit of the industry was 1649.3 yuan/ton, +50.2% month-on-month.

Electrolytic aluminum: Electrolytic aluminum production continued to grow in October, with net imports of 0.148 million tons

1) Supply: In October 2024, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.725 million tons, +0.1383 million tons/3.9% year on month, +0.0505 million tons/ 1.4% year on year; cumulative electrolytic aluminum production from January to October 2024 was 35.978 million tons, up 1.335 million tons/ 3.9% year on year; 2) Import and export: net import volume of electrolytic aluminum in October was 0.159 million tons, year on year -0.057 million tons /- 26.5%, +0.033 million tons/ +26.5% month-on-month, of which the import volume was 0.175 million tons (Russia 9.7) and the export volume was 0.016 million tons; 3) Profit: In October, the weighted average full cost of electrolytic aluminum in China (tax included) was 18,540 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton of aluminum was 2,200 yuan/ton.

Recycled aluminum: +1.9% month-on-month ratio of scrap aluminum imports in October

1) Import and export: October aluminum import volume was 0.133 million tons (Thailand 2.3+Japan 1.8), -0.021 million tons/ -13.6% year on year, +0.001 million tons/ +0.8% month on month; January-October scrap imports were 1.485 million tons, +0.065 million tons/ +4.6% year on year; 2) Profit: Shanghai aluminum scrap price difference in October was 2653.3 yuan/ton, +19.2% year over month.

Aluminum: Aluminum exports in October were +3.6% month-on-month

1) Supply: In October 2024, China's aluminum production was 5.916 million tons, with a cumulative output of 56.115 million tons in January-October, up 8.10% year on year; 2) Import and export: 0.58 million tons of aluminum in October, 0.58 million tons of aluminum in October, +0.02 million tons/ +3.6% month on month, +0.14 million tons/ +31.7% year on year. In January-October, aluminum exports were 5.48 million tons, +0.781 million tons/ +16.6% year-on-year.

Demand: In October 2024, the apparent domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 3.884 million tons, +4.6% month-on-month and -0.2% year-on-year

In terms of terminal consumption, from January to October '24, China's new housing construction area was 612.2693 million square meters, with a completed area of 419.9515 million square meters, or -23.9%; cumulative infrastructure investment increased 9.35% year on year; the monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1.463 million vehicles, +47.9% year-on-year, and +11.9% month-on-month.

Individual stocks: China Aluminum (601600.SH), China Hongqiao (01378), others recommend Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Shenhuo (000933.SZ), Yunlu (000807.SZ), and focus on Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH).

Risk warning: Downstream demand fell short of expectations, and the resumption of domestic bauxite production exceeded expectations.