The price of gold remained stable on Thursday (November 28). Spot gold is currently trading around 2636.83 US dollars/ounce. Investors are digesting a series of economic data from the previous trading day and evaluating the possibility that US President-elect Trump's policies will trigger a tariff war.

Fundamental aspects

Major disadvantages

A series of economic data was released on Wednesday, slightly biased against the price of gold. The focus is on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index. The index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% yoy, in line with expectations.

Furthermore, according to the latest estimates on Wednesday, the revised US gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter was 2.8% month-on-month, the same as the initial value, but consumer spending declined slightly.

Moreover, initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 to 0.213 million seasonally adjusted, the lowest level since April. Economists had predicted that the number of applicants would be 0.216 million.

However, in the week ending November 16, the number of renewed jobless claims increased by 9,000, to 1.907 million seasonally adjusted, the highest level since November 2021. This has also weakened many of the negative benefits of the data.

The Federal Reserve is trying to get the inflation rate back to the 2% target. Coupled with the Trump administration's potential to raise tariffs after coming to power, this may limit the ability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.10% to 878.55t on Wednesday

Key benefits

Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum (Claudia Sheinbaum) warned that Mexico would retaliate if Trump implemented his 25% comprehensive tariff proposal, and the Mexican government warned that the move could kill 0.4 million US jobs and push up US consumer prices.

In times of economic or geopolitical instability, including trade wars, gold is often viewed as a safe-haven investment.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market currently sees a 66% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. Up from 53% on Monday.

Market concerns about the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and trade concerns also supported the price of gold.

The New Zealand Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled on Wednesday, and the Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, biased to support the price of gold.

In terms of the geographical situation

Israel and Lebanon reached a cease-fire agreement to suppress risk aversion, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still tense, and the price of gold still provides support. The variables are compliance with the Lebanese-Israeli cease-fire agreement. Furthermore, the US national security adviser candidates are weighing to push for an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The overall short-term market sentiment is currently slightly bullish. Expectations of medium- to long-term interest rate cuts by central banks around the world, uncertainty about Trump's policy prospects, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are also biased to support gold prices. Previously, they have also attracted safe-haven purchases and dips to support gold prices.

vacations

Since the US market was closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, trading in previous years will be relatively light. This year is expected to be no exception.

Judging from historical trends, the amplitude on Thanksgiving Day was lower than the day before. Most were only half of the amplitude, at most 80%.

The price of gold fluctuated around $32 on Wednesday, so today's high is probably around $26. If 2620 is an intraday low, then today's high should not exceed 2646.83; and if 2638.30 is today's high, then today's low should not fall below 2612.30.

Technical side

Daily level: Volatility, intertwined moving average, MACD bonding, KDJ dead cross. The previous rebound in gold prices was suppressed by the 55-day EMA and the 5-day EMA. Before breaking the 55-day EMA at 2659.92, the market was slightly biased towards the bears.

4-hour level: fluctuation; the moving average suppresses the price of gold. The MACD signal is weak but the green bar shrinks, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening, and the previous pullback in gold prices was supported near the 61.8% retracement level of 2536-2721. Currently, the price of gold is still supported by an upward trend line, and the possibility that the price of gold will rise again to around 2721 is not ruled out.

The 100 and other multi-period moving average resistance is currently around 2638.90, and the 21 MA resistance is currently around 2643.77. If this resistance can be broken, it is expected to rise to the 200 EMA 2681.48. The gains and losses at this position can be used as a reference for the midline trend.

The upward trend line support is currently around 2625. If it falls unexpectedly below this support, the price of gold may open a short-term downward channel.

Resistance: 2638.90; 2643.77; 2650.00; 2659.92; 2681.48;

Support: 2625.59; 2616.76; 2610.78; 2600.00; 2580.31;

Conclusion: Short-term deflection fluctuation, watch for breakthroughs in the 2625-2644 region.