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Options Montage: FOMC approaching

Options Montage: FOMC approaching

期权蒙太奇:联邦公开市场委员会接近
Moomoo News ·  2021/03/15 05:49  · 独家

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by Eli, Rachel

作者:伊莱,雷切尔

Hard to feel bearish off the order flow we saw last week. Institutional sweepers showed a solid appetite for risk on Friday getting aggressive call-side into early weakness. Reopening plays remain the primary target as familiar names such as $Boeing Co(BA.US)$, $General Motors Co(GM.US)$$TripAdvisor Inc(TRIP.US)$ were lit up with call buyers all week again. 

我们很难对上周看到的订单流感到悲观。周五,机构清道夫表现出强劲的风险偏好,激进的看涨电话进入早盘疲软。重启播放仍然是主要目标,因为熟悉的名字,如$波音(BA.US)$, $通用汽车(通用汽车美国)$, $TripAdvisor Inc.(TRIP.US)$整个星期又被电话买家点亮了。

They also have shown an interest in a few individuals in recent days, and these names have both showed solid momentum and performance off the buying. $LENDINGCLUB CORP(LC.US)$ was the ticker of the day in that camp on Friday as institutions buying ran a blistering 35X normal flow. There have been no issues with the flow recently, it's just the better risk/reward entries that haven't been the most appealing for possible new swing positions. 

最近几天,他们还对几个人表现出了兴趣,这些名字都表现出了强劲的势头和买入表现。$LendingClub Corp(LC.US)$上周五,该阵营的股票代码是当天的股票代码,因为机构买入的流量达到了正常水平的35倍。最近资金流动没有问题,只是更好的风险/回报进入并不是对可能的新摇摆头寸最具吸引力的。

Get ready because we have an action-packed week ahead, with the Fed meeting right smack in the middle of this week with March expiration. So expect the overall flow to be sloppy at times as players do some hedging and roll out expiring March positions. Even though the Fed is not expected to do anything, the market might have something to say about it. We already got a glimpse of it on Friday with rates pushing higher and it wouldn't shock us to see that continue up into the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as the markets try to make their point loud and clear to Mr. Powell. That may mean more volatility in the rate-sensitive groups like Tech, even though they sure looked a lot better on Friday. Additional volatility would actually be a good thing by keeping short tern sentiment in check. 

做好准备,因为我们将迎来忙碌的一周,美联储会议将在本周中期举行,3月到期。因此,随着参与者进行一些对冲并推出即将到期的3月份头寸,预计整体资金流动有时会很草率。尽管预计美联储不会采取任何行动,但市场可能会对此发表意见。我们已经在周五看到了利率上升的迹象,如果这种情况持续到周三的联邦公开市场委员会会议,我们不会感到惊讶,因为市场试图向鲍威尔大声而明确地表达自己的观点。这可能意味着像Tech这样对利率敏感的板块会出现更大的波动,尽管它们上周五看起来确实好了很多。通过控制短期情绪,额外的波动性实际上是一件好事。

Volatility maybe could give us another tactical buy signal set up again, but make no mistake about it, all the momentum has been in these reopening plays. So if you are looking for tactical trades, intraday or over the extremely short term, that's where the focus will be on "most" days. Obviously, that can change but there have been no signs of that coming from flow or price action. The short-term sentiment is a lot more favorable in these tech and growth sectors and that should generate opportunities off additional selling in these spots. 

波动性可能会给我们提供另一个再次设置的战术买入信号,但不要搞错了,所有的势头都在这些重新开始的交易中。因此,如果你在寻找战术交易,无论是在盘中还是在极短的时间内,这将是重点将在“大多数”天。显然,这种情况可能会改变,但目前还没有迹象表明,这种改变来自于资金流动或价格走势。在这些科技和成长型行业,短期人气要有利得多,这应该会从这些领域的额外抛售中创造机会。

Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 3/12

3/12大盘指数ETF值得注意的押注

Market-wide option volume of 40.9m contracts was 5% below recent average levels, with calls leading puts 16 to 9. Single stock and Index products saw relatively heavy volume, while ETF flow was moderate. 

全市场4090万份合约的期权成交量比最近的平均水平低5%,看跌期权占比为16至9。单一股票和指数产品的成交量相对较大,而ETF的成交量较小。

Individuals breakdown by sectors (3/12 notable bets)

按行业细分的个人(3/12值得注意的赌注)

Most active sectors included Telecommunications, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals while Energy and Health Care were relatively light. Of the 3,843 stocks with listed options, 2,360 (61%) closed higher, and 1,393 (36%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was lower for 238 and higher for 210. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Boeing Co(BA.US)$, $AT&T Inc(T.US)$, $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$$General Motors Co(GM.US)$ and $United States Steel Corp(X.US)$.

最活跃的行业包括电信、工业和消费品,而能源和医疗保健行业相对较轻。在3843只有期权上市的股票中,2360只(61%)收盘上涨,1393只(36%)下跌。在流动性最强的500只单一股票中,30天隐含波动率较低的有238只,较高的有210只。观察到异常的期权总成交量$波音(BA.US)$, $AT&T公司(T.US)$, $福特汽车公司(F.US)$, $通用汽车(通用汽车美国)$$美国钢铁公司(X.US)$.

Tech

高科技

Industrial

工业

Consumer Cyclical

消费周期

Financial

金融

Communication Services

通信服务

Healthcare

医疗保健

Energy

能量

Real Estate

房地产

Basic materials

基础材料

Consumer Defensive

消费者防御性

Utilities

公用事业

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