Sinolong New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301565) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
Since its price has surged higher, Sinolong New Materials' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 66.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 35x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, Sinolong New Materials' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Sinolong New Materials' earnings, revenue and cash flow.Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Sinolong New Materials would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 33%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 55% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 39% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Sinolong New Materials is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Shares in Sinolong New Materials have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Sinolong New Materials currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Sinolong New Materials you should know about.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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