2）青洲七EPC招标，要求2025年3月20日开始发货，2025年5月30日前完成供货。It is rumored that the groundbreaking ceremony has been slightly delayed, according to institutions, the construction progress of the jiangsu project is normal, mainly because of delays in construction permit procedures.
The offshore wind project has recently been launched intensively, with the expectation of performance realization in the first half of 2025:
1) The jiangsu project is expected to start at the end of the year, waiting for the pile foundation to be delivered in December.
2) Qingzhou Seven EPC bidding, requiring delivery to start on March 20, 2025, and supply to be completed by May 30, 2025.
3) Expected delivery of the Fanishi One main cable in the second quarter of 2025.
4) Expected completion of the Fanishi Two main engine delivery by the end of June 2025.
5) Chuandao One, Sanshan Island Five, and Honghaiwan Three main engines are required to be completed by the end of June 2025. The current offshore wind bidding has exceeded 9.5GW, combined with previously unbuilt bidding projects, the offshore wind sector is expected to see high growth in 2025. Currently approved but not yet bid offshore wind projects reach 22GW, expected to start bidding in 2025, bullish about sustained high growth of offshore wind in 2026.
Hai Feng is expected to see a multiple resonance of performance realization, high bidding growth, and intensive construction following the sea breeze, gradual enhancement of certainty, expectation of increased confidence, and potential valuation increase.
According to institutional sources, the rumored delay in the groundbreaking ceremony is normal progress for the Jiangsu project, mainly due to delays in construction permit procedures. It is expected to start normally next week after obtaining the construction permit. The first piles of the two projects in Dafeng have been shipped and can be delivered at any time.
The turning point in the offshore wind power industry is evident, and excessive speculation on short-term timing should be avoided.
Overall, the domestic wind power bidding price turning point has emerged, unsustainable low-price competition with legal basis. It is expected that the profitability of related companies will recover. In addition, against the backdrop of increased bidding, certain components are expected to have conditions for price increases by 2025.
Zhixun Finance and Economics App learned that institutions are focusing on subsequent changes in evaluation criteria for other owners and the bidding situation in Q1 2025. Whether wind turbine prices will stabilize is under scrutiny for sustainability, continuing to monitor changes in evaluation criteria for other owners (2-3 companies with follow-up movement) and the bidding price situation from Q1 2025 (wind turbine companies more proactive in taking orders, observing whether prices are cannibalizing each other).
Sensitivity calculation: Taking the year 2025 as an example, assuming a 1% increase in wind turbine delivery prices for each company, if all are converted into wind turbine manufacturing profits, Goldwind, Yunda, Mingyang, and Sany's performance could increase by 4.0, 0.22, 0.32, and 0.2 billion yuan, with profit elasticity of 10%, 28%, 12%, and 8%.
Related Hong Kong stocks for Sea Wind:
Goldwind Science & Technology (02208): Citi expects its WTG sales volume and profit margin to rise between 2024 and 2025, benefiting from a higher mix of offshore and export sales, with export volume expected to double to 4GW year-on-year by 2025. Citi believes that Goldwind Science & Technology's valuation is attractive.
