On November 29, the central price of RMB was 7.1877, up 17 points, and closed at 7.2525 on the previous trading day of onshore RMB.
Clear: The RMB exchange rate may be weak and fluctuate
“As far as the RMB is concerned, in the short term, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate may weaken and fluctuate, with the support of the central bank's policy to stabilize the exchange rate. The focus is on setting the tone for next year's economic and macroeconomic policies at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Looking ahead to next year, if US tariffs on China are implemented, or if there is a negative impact on China's exports, the size of the goods trade surplus may converge and drive the current account surplus to narrow, and support for the RMB exchange rate will also weaken.” The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that domestic policies will still be a key factor affecting the RMB exchange rate next year. First, various steady growth and incremental policies will drive improvements in market expectations and economic fundamentals; second, the central bank's stabilizing exchange rate policy supports the RMB exchange rate; and third, attracting and using policies such as foreign investment and capital market construction to hedge capital outflow pressure from direct investment accounts and securities investment accounts. (Securities Daily)
The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 66.3%
CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep current interest rates unchanged until December is 33.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 66.3%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 25.8%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 58.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 15.6%.
