Maybank IB believes GoTo Gojek Tokopedia is moving along in the right trajectory and has raised the group's target price to IDR105 from IDR95 keeping the Buy call
9M24 revenue beat forecast due to the stronger-than-expected ODS segment and expansion into the lending business, which has a higher take-rate than ewallet/payments. The house is revising the FY25/26 revenue forecasts by 17%/15%, and expects GoTo's operating losses to narrow. The house thinks GoTo's cash balance of about IDR21.9t in 9M24 can support its operations.
ODS: expanding with improving profitability 9M24 ODS net revenue rose 82% YoY to IDR7.9t (achieved 83% of old forecast of IDR9.5t). Maybank IB expects momentum to continue and project ODS GTV at IDR62t/IDR69t/IDR74t, up by 14%/10%/8% YoY in FY24/25/26E.
Meanwhile, the investment bank expects a gross take-rate of 22% in FY24-26E and anticipates a net take-rate of 17.3% in FY25/26E (vs 17.2% in FY24E) – translating to net revenue of IDR10.7t/IDR11.9t/IDR12.8t in FY24/25/26E. It also expects ODS to be profitable, projecting operating profits of IDR342b/IDR592b in FY25/26E (vs UDR79b loss in FY24E). However, it is
subject to cost efficiency and marketing (related to competition).
The house views the lending business as the future driver of GOTO, as it has a higher margin (estimates an average lending rate of 4% vs payment take-rate of about 0.5%). And forecasts an average lending book of IDR7.4t/IDR8.3t in FY25/FY26E, with an average yield assumption of 4.0%/4.0%, translating to lending revenue of IDR3.6t/IDR4.0t in FY25/FY26E (vs management's target of about IDR8t-9t lending book by end-9M25). Maybank IB thinks GTF is a profitable business and is projecting operating profits of IDR311b/IDR551b in FY25/26E. However, it still expects operating loss at a consolidated level, mainly as it anticipates corporate costs of about IDR1.9t/IDR1.8t in FY25/FY26E.
