国金证券指出，当前时点光伏主产业链已持续亏损半年以上，大部分环节进入现金流亏损状态，在协会倡议以及企业自律的共同作用下，“减产&挺价”或成为产业链各环节头部企业阶段性一致行动方向。考虑到当前行业资本开支已显著放缓，随着落后产能逐步淘汰出清，产业链各环节供需关系正在持续改善，且有望在24年底-25年初的“年关”期间加速。光伏各环节景气底部夯实明确，较为普遍且显著的主产业链盈利拐点最快有望25Q2到来，预计大部分标的后续将呈现“波动上行”趋势。Solar stocks generally rose. As of press time, flat glass (06865) rose 6.42%, trading at 13.6 HKD; gcl tech (03800) rose 5%, trading at 1.47 HKD; xinyi solar (00968) rose 4.86%, trading at 3.45 HKD.
According to Zhito Finance APP, solar stocks generally rose. As of press time, flat glass (06865) rose 6.42%, trading at 13.6 HKD; gcl tech (03800) rose 5%, trading at 1.47 HKD; xinyi solar (00968) rose 4.86%, trading at 3.45 HKD; xinte energy (01799) rose 2.17%, trading at 8.46 HKD.
In terms of news, following the October 2023 meeting organized by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association to prevent vicious competition in the industry, the photovoltaic industry has again held a "self-regulation seminar," and the level and scale of the meeting have further increased. According to the official WeChat account of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, a "Self-regulation Seminar for External Trade Enterprises in the Photovoltaic Industry" organized by the chamber was held in peking. During the meeting, corporate representatives expressed their support for the initiative proposed by the chamber to voluntarily maintain order in the industry. The scale of this meeting has increased compared to the previous one in October, with the number of participating companies growing from 16 to 22.
Sinolink pointed out that at the current time, the main industry chain of photovoltaics has been in continuous loss for more than six months, and most links have entered a cash flow loss state. Under the joint action of the association's initiative and corporate self-regulation, "production reduction & price support" may become a phased consensus action direction among leading companies in various links of the industry chain. Considering that current industry capital expenditures have significantly slowed down, as outdated production capacity is gradually eliminated, the supply and demand relationship in various links of the industry chain is continuously improving and is expected to accelerate during the "year-end" period from late 2024 to early 2025. The bottom of the photovoltaic industry chain is solid and obvious, and the main industry chain's profitability inflection point may arrive as early as Q2 2025, with most symbols expected to show a "volatility upward" trend in the future.
