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中金给予蔚来(09866)“跑赢行业”评级,称期待交付冲高、迎更强产品周期

CICC gives NIO (09866) an "outperform industry" rating, stating an expectation for delivery to surge and a stronger product cycle ahead.

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 29, 2024 06:05

In the interview on the same day, Li Bin talked with Wang Honghao, founder of 180 Science and the head of CarStyling China, and Pan Ran, a well-known tech blogger and director of “Flipping Books,” about the original intention of starting NIO and the actions the company should focus on next.

“We have raised 18.9 billion US dollars from around the world to develop the smart electric vehicle industry in China. We have done a lot of open things in the Chinese automobile industry chain. We are doing a good job that others can directly use, and we have cultivated many talents, including cultivating our own company, and collaborating with partners in the industry chain to innovate.” Li Bin, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO (09866), said during the live broadcast of EasyCar's in-depth dialogue program “Hawker” “NIO 10th Anniversary: Dialogue with Li Bin” on November 26.

In the interview on the same day, Li Bin talked with Wang Honghao, founder of 180 Science and the head of CarStyling China, and Pan Ran, a well-known tech blogger and director of “Flipping Books,” about the original intention of starting NIO and the actions the company should focus on next.

When talking about why NIO is still favored by investors from around the world during the cold winter of global capital, Li Bin admits that the main reason investors are willing to invest in NIO is that NIO is open and transparent in terms of finance, which is very important for global investors. At the same time, investors can see that NIO's money is spent on technology research and development, energy supplementation infrastructure, brand building, etc., all of which can be considered an investment.

“A lot of people don't understand why we were able to finance 3.3 billion dollars from Abu Dhabi, and I was able to finance it in one go. It's not that I'm good at it, and I'm not very good at English. Our financial figures are all public. They know much more than us, and they know where the money was lost. Let me take a small example. We have invested a total of 53 billion yuan in R&D. If you look at the balance sheet, all of our R&D investment has been costed and reflected in current losses, and some companies will choose to calculate it as intangible assets, so we won't lose that much in the current period. Investors know the situation as soon as they look at the company's finances because our finances are very transparent.” Li Bin said.

NIO previously released its financial report for the third quarter of 2024 on November 20: sales for the third quarter reached a record high of 0.062 million units, revenue increased to 18.67 billion yuan, vehicle gross margin continued to rise to 13.1%, R&D investment was 3.32 billion yuan, and the cumulative R&D investment since 2016 has exceeded 53 billion yuan. Notably, thanks to positive free cash flow, NIO's cash reserves increased to 42.2 billion yuan. NIO also released the strongest quarterly guidance in history: delivery guidance for the fourth quarter was 0.072 million units to 0.075 million units, up 43.9% to 49.9% year on year; revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was 19.68 billion yuan to 20.38 billion yuan, up 15.0% to 19.2% year over year. Both guidelines reached record highs.

Li Bin, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO, said in a financial conference call on the evening of the 20th: Starting next year, NIO will enter a new round of product cycles, the Ledao and Firefly brands will have new product deliveries, and the entire group will enter a new rapid growth cycle. “As sales double next year, overall operations will continue to achieve positive growth, losses are expected to narrow next year, and the goal is to achieve profit by 2026.”

After the financial report was released, many well-known investment banks, including Deutsche Bank, Citibank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase, BOC International, CITIC Securities, etc. all gave NIO a “buy,” “increase in holdings,” or “outperform the industry.”

Deutsche Bank gave a “buy” rating in its latest report, saying that NIO's third-quarter results are in line with market expectations, and believes that with the increase in Ledao L60, the fourth quarter guidance can be achieved. At the same time, based on the company's strong new product plan for 2025, the goal of doubling sales in 2025 is expected to be achieved. The bank gave a target price of HK$73.80 for the next 12 months.

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Citibank also gave a “buy” rating and gave a target price of $8.90. Citi expects that thanks to the expansion of the number of sales stores and the continued installation of charging and switching infrastructure, Ledao is expected to maintain this strong sales momentum after reaching 20,000 monthly sales in March next year. Citi anticipates that the company's gross margin is expected to continue to increase in 2025, driven by the continuous upgrading of operation, sales and technology of the three brands.

CITIC Securities maintained a “buy” rating for NIO's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, and wrote in the report that NIO's 2024 Q3 results were in line with expectations. Since 2024, NIO has implemented a number of measures to boost sales. According to the company's performance announcement, the company expects the 24Q4 delivery volume to be 0.072 million to 0.075 million vehicles, and sales have improved markedly. Looking ahead to 2025, Ledao plans to release two new SUV products, and the “Firefly” brand will also be officially launched, continuing to downgrade good products and power exchange experiences to a lower price segment, which will help expand the company's sales volume. After the increase in ownership, it is expected that the operating efficiency of power exchange stations will also improve. With the help of the Ledao brand, the company is expected to actually succeed in the power exchange business model. Maintain “buy” ratings for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks.

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CICC maintained NIO's rating of “outperforming the industry.” CICC believes that in the third quarter, NIO's gross margin for the automobile business grew to 13.1% month-on-month, losses narrowed month-on-month, and sales guidance for the fourth quarter was steady, and overall performance was in line with expectations. CICC expects that the cost reduction will continue to be realized, and NIO's comprehensive gross margin is expected to rise steadily. The Ledao L60 is expected to become the company's new growth engine and drive another improvement in overall operating efficiency. The company is expected to usher in a stronger product cycle in 2025.

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J.P. Morgan maintains an “gain” rating on NIO. The bank believes that management was optimistic during the performance conference call. Thanks to the launch of new models, sales are expected to increase by more than 100% next year. At the same time, it is expected that NIO's gross margin and profitability will improve as scale effects become apparent and incentives are reduced.

On November 25, on the occasion of the company's 10th anniversary, Li Bin issued an internal letter requesting the team to continue to strengthen system capacity building from the bottom up and focus on improving the operational efficiency of basic business units. Li Bin said that the next two years are critical. Continuing to launch new competitive products, continuously improving operational efficiency, doubling sales next year, and achieving the company's profit in 2026 are tasks that cannot be missed.

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