Financial Services Association, November 29 (Editor Shi Zhengcheng) It was probably around this time last year that Wall Street was full of concerns about sharp fluctuations in the US stock market in 2024, such as “whether the Fed will cut interest rates too slowly” triggering a hard economic landing, and whether Trump will disrupt the US political scene.

A year has passed, and the S&P 500 index is now attacking the final results of entering the “Wall Street Bull Market Hall of Fame.”

As of Thanksgiving, the S&P 500 index has risen 25.76% this year to date, and there is still a possibility of impacting the “biggest annual increase after the millennium” — 29.60% (2013) — in the last month, which means it will rise to 6,182 points before the end of the year.

Entering 2024, few people can expect this year's S&P 500 to reach one of the best increases in history, and not many people expect individual tech giants to “rush for another year” with the index. At the time, most economists were still worried about the outlook for inflation, the US Federal Reserve's vague interest rate path (which is still unclear), and corporate profit prospects.

However, as the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate cuts, the economic growth rate was still reasonable, driving the stock market all the way up. In fact, in addition to US stocks, the performance of the European stock market is also remarkable, and most countries' benchmark indices are growing. However, since the increase in US stocks was so strong, the comparison between the Stoxx 600 index and the S&P 500 index can already be included as one of the worse years in history.

US stocks have often experienced rapid sharp declines in the past few years, and their performance this year was also relatively short and moderate. Compared with a retracement of more than 20% in the past, the biggest wave of sell-off in the year occurred in early August, and the pullback from the highest point to the lowest point was not even 10%.

However, in an optimistic atmosphere looking forward to a new high at the end of the year, there are also uneasy considerations in the hidden corner — Wall Street as a whole is currently generally consistent in its optimism, and few people expect major adjustments in US stocks in the near future. However, almost everyone has some doubts that the index can perform well for three years in a row.

William Davis, the global chief investment officer of Columbia Threadneedle, said that the current market's profit expectations for US stocks in 2025 are still very optimistic, probably reaching 15%. This continued resilience is somewhat surprising. Because as we enter 2025, the global economy is not without risk.

Also speaking as a family, Jim Rogers, a well-known investor once known as the “King of Commodities,” issued another warning this week. He said, “Given America's serious debt problems, after the longest bull market in history, the next bear market will also be very serious.”

At the same time, Rogers criticized Trump, who is about to enter the White House, arguing that his series of policies “are bad for America and the rest of the world,” but “Mr. Trump doesn't know this, nor does he care.”

He believes that if the US stock market enters a bear market, the decline will reach at least 30%, and the global stock market will also be dragged down. As a result, he has liquidated most of his stock positions and holds cash in US dollars.