今年以来，美股零售板块的表现也很强劲。标普500非必需消费品板块年初至今飙升25%，其中皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL.US)、Deckers Outdoor(DECK.US)和Tapestry(TPR.US)等个股领涨，而标普500消费必需品行业指数在沃尔玛(WMT.US)，好市多(COST.US)和家乐氏(K.US)的推动下实现了18%的回报。然而，即使在同一行业内，公司之间也存在显著差异，沃尔玛的股价在经历了一个季度的上涨后最近飙升至新高，而塔吉特(TGT.US)在第三季度业绩公布后下跌了20%。The relaxation of interest rates, the slowdown of inflation, the imminent threat of tariffs, and strong holiday sentiment are expected to drive Americans' shopping numbers to a historic high this year.
According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 0.1834 billion people nationwide in the United States plan to shop from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday in physical stores and online this year, surpassing the 0.182 billion record set in 2023 by an additional 18.1 million five years ago.
Black Friday is estimated to remain the most popular shopping day, with 0.1317 billion people planning to shop, of which 65% will visit physical stores. These numbers continue to demonstrate the resilience of American consumers, with winter holiday spending in November and December expected to reach record levels. NRF forecasts a year-on-year increase of 2.5% to 3.5%, reaching $979.5 billion to $989 billion, with retailers expected to hire 0.4 million to 0.5 million seasonal workers to meet the demand and support business operations.
The performance of the retail sector in the US stock market has been strong this year. The S&P 500 non-essential consumer goods sector has surged 25% year-to-date, with stocks like Royal Caribbean (RCL.US), Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US), and Tapestry (TPR.US) leading the way. The S&P 500 consumer staples industry index achieved an 18% return, driven by Walmart (WMT.US), Costco (COST.US), and Kellanova (K.US). However, even within the same industry, there are significant differences between companies, with Walmart's stock price recently soaring to new heights after a quarter of growth, while Target (TGT.US) fell 20% following the third-quarter earnings announcement.
