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新興市場見通し:幕間つなぎの物色が継続か、主力株に資金が向かう展開へ

Emerging markets outlook: Will the search for interlude stocks continue, or will funds flow towards core stocks?

Fisco Japan ·  00:14

Large cap stocks in the main board market are attracting attention.

Emerging markets rose this week. Whereas the Nikkei Average fell by -0.20% during the same period, the growth market index rose by +0.51% and the growth market 250 index by +0.91%, highlighting the strength of the emerging markets. In the U.S., expectations of a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December increased, while in Japan, expectations of a rate hike at the December monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan strengthened, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. The exchange rate market saw a re-entry of around 149 yen to the dollar for the first time in about a month due to a stronger yen and weaker dollar trend. While large cap stocks in the main board market remained sluggish under a strong yen and weak dollar trend, the domestic demand-focused emerging markets showed a steady performance. The decrease in participants due to Thanksgiving in the U.S. also had an impact, leading to increased stock picking during the weekend.

Among the top market capitalization stocks, WealthNavi <7342> surged on news of a takeover by Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> and hit the daily limit up. Following the announcement of a tender offer at 1950 yen after the close on the 29th, there is a high possibility of hitting the limit up again at the beginning of the week. In addition, Buysell Tech <7685> was bought on positive reports from securities companies, while Taimey <215A> and GNIA Group <2160> remained firm. On the other hand, Lawyers.com <6027> struggled, and GENDA <9166> fell for the 6th consecutive day.

This week, three companies were newly listed on the growth market. The opening price of Kukleb Advisors <276A>, listed on the 28th, was 31.6% above the offering price at 1250 yen. Similarly, Grooving <277A>, listed on the 29th, opened at 23.6% above the offering price at 5600 yen, while Terra Drone <278A> opened 8.0% below the offering price at 2162 yen.


Will funds flow into leading stocks like BASE <4477>?

Next week in the emerging markets, the search for opportunities during interim periods is likely to continue due to the difficulty in determining the direction of the main board market. As trading volume has not increased significantly at around 100 billion yen, the trend is not very strong. However, the growth market 250 index, which hit a high for the first time in a month and a half, is firmly above the upward 75-day moving average line (75MA), indicating a potential rise towards the 660-point level where the 200-day moving average line (200MA) is located. The sharp rise of WealthNavi, a constituent stock, will also be a material pushing the index higher.

The target of investment includes BASE <4477> and other leading stocks that have been steadily rising in market capitalization. Additionally, short-term funds may flow into Amefurisolar <5616>, which showed a rebound trend this week. On the other hand, Last One Mile <9252>, which temporarily reached the daily limit up at the end of the week, may face a negative reaction at the beginning of the week following the release of 'important deficiencies to be disclosed on the internal control related to financial reports'.

Next week, TMH <280A>, which handles sales and repair services for semiconductor manufacturing equipment components, will be listed on the growth market and Fukuoka Q Board. In December, 18 companies are scheduled to be listed, and on the 18th, Kioxia HD <285A> of the scale of Tokyo Metro will be listed on the main board market. Therefore, interest in December IPOs is expected to be higher than usual.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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