■There is also a scene where the Nikkei Average falls below the 38,000 yen level

This week's Nikkei Average fell slightly to 38208.03 yen, a weekly depreciation of 75.82 yen (-0.20%). While interest rate cut observations at the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December intensified in the United States, interest rate hike observations at the December monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan intensified, there was awareness of a reduction in interest rate differences between Japan and the US, and the exchange market entered the 1 dollar = 149 yen range for the first time in about 1 month. US stocks were strong, with the NY Dow breaking the all-time high every day, but the appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar were disgusted, export-related stocks such as Toyota's own (7203) were sold, and the Nikkei Average, which temporarily recovered 39,000 yen at the beginning of the week, fell, and weak movements breaking through the 38,000 yen level were seen many times. Over the weekend, since the number of participants decreased due to the closure of the US market due to Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday and shortened transactions, etc., the trading price of the Prime Market on November 29 also fell far below 4 trillion yen.

Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 3rd week of November, foreign investors oversold actual goods by 353.2 billion yen, oversold TOPIX futures by 24.8 billion yen, and 225 futures were oversold by 61.8 billion yen, resulting in a total oversale of 439.8 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors overbought actual goods by 202.9 billion yen, etc., for a total of 217.1 billion yen. The business corporation has overbought the actual product by 233.5 billion yen, and it has been overbought for 21 consecutive weeks.

■The Nikkei Average is reluctant to decline at the 75-day line level

The US stock market rebounded on the 29th. The Dow average closed at 44910.65 dollars, which was 188.59 dollars higher than the previous day, and the NASDAQ closed at 19218.17, which was 157.69 points higher. Nikkei 225 futures from the Taisen Night Session closed at 38160 yen, 10 yen lower than the intraday closing price. In the exchange market, in response to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's remarks correcting the depreciation of the yen, December interest rate hike observations intensified, and the appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar accelerated to 1 dollar = 149 yen 40 yen at one point.

The Nikkei Average this weekend was developed with an awareness of the area around the 75-day moving average (75MA: 38207 yen), and the closing price was almost at the same level. The 25-day moving average (25MA) and 200-day moving average (200MA) are located above, and since there is no prominent support line below the 75-day moving average, when this level is broken in general technology, it becomes a trend of “entering an adjustment phase and being wary of searching for lower prices.” However, this week it fell below the 75-day moving average several times and entered the 37,000 yen range, but solid movements were seen, such as continuing to maintain 38,000 yen at the closing price. Even though export-related stocks were generally weak, the fact that financial stocks such as megabanks, regional banks, and insurance were bought was a certain support since the Bank of Japan's observations of interest rate hikes in December intensified.

Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ was bought because it was reported on the 28th that “semiconductor regulations against China by the US government are less stepped in than before,” and the NT ratio temporarily expanded to 14.33 times, but on the weekend, TOPIX became dominant due to the rise in megabanks with large market capitalization, and it shrunk to the 14.2 times range. Until the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting to be held on December 18-19, while financial stocks are likely to be bought based on interest rate hike observations, the appreciation of the yen is heavy and export-related stocks are weak, and it seems that tug-of-war will continue. Next week's Nikkei Average will continue, and there will be a narrow range trend centered around the 75-day moving average level from 38,000 yen.

■Prime Minister Ishiwari's statement of faith speech was within expectations

Prime Minister Ishiwari made a statement of faith at the plenary session of both houses of the House of Representatives from 15:00 on the 29th. Regarding the increase in the “annual income 1.03 million yen barrier,” which requires payment of income tax, in addition to stating that “it will be discussed and raised in the 2025 tax system reform,” they also stated that an active cyber defense bill will be submitted early to the Diet, the start of regional revitalization 2.0, and developments based on international standards related to disaster prevention. Since there were no novelties within the scope of content that has already been conveyed as comprehensive economic measures on the 22nd, it seems that movements to search for disaster prevention-related, regional revitalization-related, defense-related, etc. once again can be refrained.

Soft landing observations of the economy and policy expectations of the next Trump administration have taken precedence, and the strength of US stocks stands out worldwide. Meanwhile, the Tokyo market lacks a sense of direction. The December exchange rate will start next week, but since there are no notable events planned domestically, the trading price on the Prime Market remains around 4 trillion yen, and I think the direction of the Nikkei Average remains undecided.

■November US employment statistics announced on the 6th

Next week, in Japan, October monthly labor statistics, household budget surveys, business trend indices (preliminary figures), etc. are scheduled for the 6th.

Overseas, Australia/October retail sales on the 2nd, Mid-November Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Turkey/November Manufacturing PMI, Europe/October Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US/November PMI (confirmed value), ISM manufacturing business climate index, number of JOLTS job offers on the 3rd, Australia/3rd quarter real GDP, Mid-November Saishin PMI, number of US/November ADP employees, service industry PMI (confirmed value), composite PMI (confirmed value), October manufacturing new orders received, durable goods orders (confirmed value) ), November ISM non-manufacturing business index, weekly crude oil inventory, beige book, Australia/October trade balance on the 5th, Anglo/November construction industry PMI, number of new weekly unemployment insurance claims, October trade balance, real GDP (confirmed value) for the 3rd quarter of Europe on the 6th, number of US/11 non-farm sector employees, unemployment rate, average hourly wage, December University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary value), etc. are scheduled.