Jiutong Finance APP learned that after the "Golden September and Silver October" turned into "Iron September and Copper October," November 2024 advanced to "Silver Eleven." According to the preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in November 2024, the total sales of heavy-duty trucks in china was around 0.071 million units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), an increase of 7% from October, basically flat compared to the same period last year.

Monthly trend chart of China's heavy truck market sales volume from 2018 to 2024 (unit: units)

In November, the heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 0.071 million units, ending a five-month continuous decline in the market.

According to the preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in November 2024, the total sales of heavy-duty trucks in china was around 0.071 million units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), an increase of 7% from October, basically flat compared to the same period last year.

Looking back at the past eight years, the 0.071 million units are higher than the sales in November 2022 and November 2021, on par with November 2023, and lower than the sales in November of other years. However, this 0.071 million units hold a different significance as it marks the end of five consecutive months of year-on-year decline in the heavy-duty truck market from June to October this year, clearly boosting confidence in the industry and the entire industry chain.

Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 0.82 million units of various vehicle types, with a year-on-year decline of about 5%.

In November, the overall heavy truck market shifted from negative to stable, mainly driven by the truck "scrappage for new" policy. Due to the implementation plans for the truck scrappage policy in various provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities not being gradually released and put into effect until late August and September, the policy information "reached" end-users mostly in October. Coupled with some users' attitude of "deciding closer to the year-end" and adopting a wait-and-see approach, the policy actually began to take effect in November-December. Based on this, the demand in the heavy truck market in November is expected to increase instead of decrease, with the estimated actual sales volume reaching around 0.055 million units in November, an increase of about 23% compared to the previous month, and an increase of about 13% year-on-year, which is quite satisfactory both month-on-month and year-on-year. The end-of-November terminal orders and sales volume saw significant growth compared to the previous month, with the domestic wholesale sales volume for that month responding to the growth trend, which is reasonable.

Annual sales trends of China's heavy truck market from 2015 to 2024 (unit: 10,000 vehicles)

In addition to the vehicle scrappage policy driving force, there are several other boosting factors for the heavy truck market in November. First is the gas heavy trucks. In November, due to the continuous decline in LNG prices and the further widening of the price gap between oil and gas, the demand for natural gas heavy trucks market also showed some recovery, with an expected increase in end sales of around 13% compared to the previous month, but a significant decline year-on-year.

Next is the new energy heavy trucks. As one of the important driving forces for the development of China's heavy truck market, sales in the field of new energy heavy trucks have maintained a strong momentum from the beginning of the year to now, with an expected actual sales of around 8,000 units in November, an increase of over 70% year-on-year.

The heavy truck market is expected to see a significant increase in December.

Due to the policy drive, the last two months of 2024 show a significant "back-end effect."

In November, the heavy truck industry reversed its continuous decline in the second half of the year, bringing the market back to a more positive and confident track. How about December?

According to the truck replacement policy issued on July 31 this year, December 31, 2024, is the deadline for replacing old trucks with new ones. In this final month of the policy, the renewal speed of China III heavy trucks will further accelerate. After all, in the minds of many users, 'once this village is gone, there will be no such shop'. The highest subsidy for scrapping one vehicle and purchasing a new one is 0.045 million, and for a new vehicle the subsidy is up to 0.065 million (China VI diesel truck) / 0.095 million (new energy heavy truck), which is quite attractive.

According to the First Commercial Vehicle Network, it is expected that the actual sales volume of domestic heavy trucks in December 2024 is expected to reach 65,000-70,000 units, achieving double-digit rapid growth both year-on-year and month-on-month. Wholesale sales volume (domestic + export) is also expected to reach around 75,000-80,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 40-50%.

At this pace, what about the upcoming year 2025? Will there be new policies?

National IV 'old for new'.

In fact, since November, provinces and cities such as Jiangsu and Guizhou have successively introduced policies to expand the scope of the truck replacement policy to include National IV diesel vehicles.

For example, on November 22, Jiangsu Province jointly issued a notice with five departments titled 'Notice from the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments on further promoting long-term special national debt funds to support the replacement of old goods with new ones'. It proposes to 'expand the support range for scrapping and renewing old operating trucks. In accordance with the spirit of the 'Transportation, Large-scale Equipment Renewal Action Plan' and other documents, scrapped National IV standard operating diesel trucks are included in the support range for long-term special national debt, with support standards and operating rules in accordance with the 'Notice of the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance on Implementing the Replacement of Old Operating Trucks' (Jiaogui Planning Development (2024) No. 90), consistent with scrapped National III and below emission standard operating diesel trucks. That is: for early scrapped National IV emission standard operating diesel trucks, depending on the type of vehicle (medium, heavy) and the early scrapping time, tiered subsidies are provided ranging from 0.01 million to -0.045 million per vehicle. For early scrapped National IV emission standard operating diesel trucks and the purchase of new National VI emission standard operating diesel trucks or new energy operating trucks, tiered subsidies ranging from 0.035 million to -0.14 million per vehicle are provided.' Guizhou Province announced on November 16 'Several Policy Measures to Fully Promote the Sustained Economic Recovery and Improvement in Guizhou Province', proposing 'the inclusion of National IV diesel trucks, taxi cabs, driving training instructor vehicles, etc., in the scope of the old-for-new support'.

Does this mean that in 2025, the subsidy policy for the early elimination and renewal of National IV old diesel trucks will be brought forward on a larger scale?