According to Construction Machinery Magazine statistics, CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in November 2024 will be around 16,900 units, an increase of about 13% year-on-year. In the long term, improvements in domestic demand and continued overseas expansion are the main growth logic of the industry.
Zhixun Finance APP learned that Huafu Securities released research reports stating that, according to Construction Machinery Magazine statistics, CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in November 2024 will be around 16,900 units, an increase of about 13% year-on-year. Domestic estimated sales of 8,600 units, a 15% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the arrival of a new round of replacement cycle, gradual effects of real estate loosening policies, national large-scale replacement policy catalytic effects, and other factors, the domestic market is expected to enter a new growth cycle. Export sales are estimated at 8,300 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, benefiting from gradual completion of inventory reduction of domestic brands, low base numbers, moderate overseas demand recovery, and positive export performance. In the long term, improvements in domestic demand and continued overseas expansion are the main growth logic of the industry.
In addition, the BMW show attracted 3,542 exhibitors from 32 countries and regions, including 700 international brands. The event attracted 281,488 professional visitors from 188 countries and regions for procurement discussions, with overseas visitors accounting for over 20%. Among them, Sany's on-site signings exceeded 8 billion yuan; XCMG Group and Fortescue jointly announced their partnership, signing a potential green mining equipment supply contract worth 3 billion yuan on site.
Increasing the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policies, stable real estate market, and optimistic prospects for infrastructure to receive stimuli.
On September 24, the central bank announced a series of policies including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and lowering existing home mortgage rates, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to further reduce corporate financing and residential credit costs. On September 26, the Political Bureau held a meeting emphasizing the support to stabilize the real estate market, strict control over the increase in commodity housing construction, optimization of existing stock, quality improvement, increased support for 'white list' project loans, and encouragement to activate idle land reserves.
On September 29, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued four financial policies, including adjusting the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, optimizing down payment ratios, improving requirements for refinancing of affordable housing, and extending the validity period of specific real estate financial policies. On October 12, the Ministry of Finance will gradually introduce a package of targeted incremental policy measures. For example, intensifying support to resolve local government debt risks, significantly increasing debt quotas, and utilizing local government special bonds, special funds, tax policies, and other tools to support the stabilization of the real estate market and policies.
Domestic sales bottoming out combined with overseas market expansion, the industry experiences resonance at home and abroad.
Domestic Demand: The combination of equipment renewal and eco-friendly policies will lead to the turning point of the cycle. According to Wind data, in H1 of 2024, the domestic sales of excavators reached 0.053 million units, an increase of 4.66% year-on-year; exports reached 0.05 million units, a decrease of 13.8% year-on-year; a total of 0.103 million excavators were sold, a decrease of 5.15% year-on-year. Due to the renewal, environmental protection, and subsidy policies, it is expected to accelerate the replacement process of old equipment in the industry, and the demand for equipment renewal is expected to gradually increase after 2025.
Overseas Demand: From January to June 2024, China's exports of construction machinery complete sets and components amounted to $25.837 billion, an increase of 3.38% year-on-year. The global market size is three times that of the domestic market, with a high concentration in the global industry. The top 20 enterprises account for more than 80% of the sales of the top 50 enterprises. The structure is relatively stable, with Caterpillar and Komatsu maintaining their leading positions globally. Chinese companies have established a foothold overseas and will steadily promote market expansion in Belt and Road Initiative countries in the future.
It is recommended to pay attention to the symbols.
Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), XCMG Construction Machinery (000425.SZ), Zoomlion (000157.SZ), Guangxi Liugong Machinery (000528.SZ), Shantui Construction Machinery (000680.SZ).
Risk warning
Downstream real estate, infrastructure investment falling short of expectations, fluctuation risks in prices of raw materials, international trade risks, risks from fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate.
