The demand for overseas industrial and commercial energy storage is good, and the energy storage orders in December are still performing sufficiently, so the production in December is expected to remain stable month-on-month, with lithium prices still supported.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the demand for overseas industrial and commercial energy storage is good, and energy storage orders in December are still performing sufficiently, so production in December is expected to remain stable month-on-month, with lithium prices still supported. Due to the continued exceeding expectations of consumer demand in the fourth quarter, a monthly supply-demand mismatch has occurred in domestic lithium carbonate, leading to a monthly shortage of lithium carbonate and destocking. Most orders from downstream cell manufacturers and iron lithium manufacturers in December are flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month, on the one hand, year-end enterprises are striving for performance; secondly, the "old-for-new" replacement policy is about to come to an end, continuously stimulating consumer enthusiasm for purchasing cars, resulting in positive demand in the terminal car market, with power cell production and sales data showing unexpectedly high growth.
Main viewpoints of Zhongxin Jiandao are as follows:
Lithium: According to Baichuan Yingfu, this week the average market price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 0.074 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7% from last week, and the average price of battery-grade coarse-grained lithium hydroxide is 0.069 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7% from last week.
On the supply side, domestic lithium carbonate production maintained overall this week, with manufacturers increasing their hedging in the early stage and relatively active production. Leading manufacturers continue to operate at high levels, while orders for contract manufacturers increase this month, with the production capacity of newly commissioned and recently resumed companies still ramping up. Manufacturers are actively shipping, with some companies having pre-sold their remaining capacity within the year. Overall lithium carbonate inventory has decreased slightly, manufacturers' inventory has rebounded, and downstream maintains safe inventory levels, while trading inventory and other inventory have seen slight increases. As the expiration of futures warehouse receipts approaches, the quantity of warehouse receipts is declining ahead of time, and the production date of newly registered warehouse receipts next month needs to be within two months.
On the demand side, downstream positive electrode production remains high, with the overall production of lithium iron phosphate in December remaining stable month-on-month, and leading manufacturers showing mutual increases and decreases in production. The energy storage export market is performing well. This week, the price of lithium carbonate fell, and downstream spot purchases increased slightly, with spot prices mainly at low levels. Discounts for new upstream and downstream long-term contracts are still under negotiation, and some downstream parties are waiting for discussions with major battery manufacturers. Current feedback from upstream and downstream indicates that new long-term contracts are unlikely to have discounts, and pricing methods remain based on website prices, making it difficult to align with futures prices.
On the resource side, the significance of domestic lithium resource independence and control has become prominent, and it is recommended to pay attention to Yongxing Special Materials Technology (002756.SZ), Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ), and Ganfenglithium (002460.SZ) among others.
Nickel: This week, the LME nickel price was $16,000/ton, a 1.2% increase from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price was 126,010 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase from last week.
This week, the SHFE nickel inventory was 0.033 million tons, the LME nickel inventory was 0.16 million tons, totaling 0.193 million tons, an increase of 1.5% from last week. This week, domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to be 28,450 tons, unchanged from last week's production, with the operating rate remaining the same. Recently, nickel salt plants are still in a situation where profits are inverted, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is average, primarily producing based on sales, while the overall market supply remains sufficient with little change.
Rare Earth & Magnetic Materials: This week, rare earth prices fluctuated and adjusted.
As of this Thursday, the market average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 0.413 million yuan/ton, up 0.73% from last Friday's price; the market average price of dysprosium oxide was 1.67 million yuan/ton, down 0.6% from last Friday's price; the market average price of terbium oxide was 5.755 million yuan/ton, down 1.2% from last Friday's price.
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, supply is relatively stable, with limited releases in the market, mainly major manufacturers taking deliveries, which has a limited impact on downstream. Due to eco-friendly inspections in sichuan, there may be a potential decrease in production, with no significant changes expected in the short term. The quantity of spot supply remains stable, especially on the metal end, where shipments are under pressure and inventories are relatively accumulating.
Demand additions are limited, and market performance is weak towards the end of the year. There are limited new orders on the demand side, with consumer sentiment relatively cautious, and end-user ordering prices continue to decrease, leading to continued internal competition and price wars that suppress the price increases of upstream products. It is recommended to pay attention to ningbo yunsheng (600366.SH), jl mag rare-earth (06680,300748.SZ), etc.
