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财报前瞻 | 软件股财报密集来袭,赛富时(CRM.US)是焦点

Earnings report preview | Software stocks are set to release earnings reports in succession, with salesforce (CRM.US) as the focus.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 2, 2024 15:33

Enterprise software giant Salesforce (CRM.US) is set to announce its third-quarter performance after Tuesday's market close Eastern Time. Q3 revenue is expected to grow by 7% to $9.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to increase by 16% to $2.44 per share.

According to the Securities Times APP, enterprise software giant Salesforce (CRM.US) is scheduled to announce its third-quarter performance after Tuesday's market close Eastern Time. Q3 revenue is estimated to increase by 7% to $9.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share are expected to rise by 16% to $2.44 per share. People may think that there won't be much movement in financial reports the week after Thanksgiving, but Salesforce has become the headline news of a busy week in the software industry.

Last Wednesday, Salesforce and other enterprise software stocks faced heavy selling pressure from sellers. However, after a strong breakout above $300 in early November, Salesforce still holds above the key short-term resistance level, the 21-day index moving average.

In addition to Salesforce, several other companies in the enterprise software sector will also release their financial reports. Samsara (IOT.US) and Docusign (DOCUSIGN.US) will announce their third-quarter earnings after Thursday's market close.

Samsara provides sensors and cloud-based software to manage fleets and industrial operations. The stock also saw a significant decline last Wednesday, but it was merely a test of the 10-day moving average. Samsara achieved annual profitability for the first time in the fiscal year ending January 2024.

In recent quarters, Samsara's revenue growth rate has started to slow down, but this is mainly due to the difficulty of maintaining high growth compared to before. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company's revenue to reach $0.3106 billion in the quarter ending October, a 31% year-on-year increase.

Docusign is one of the early leaders in the e-signature field. After breaking through the $61.09 level at the end of September, the stock is also testing its 10-day moving average. Docusign triggered profit-taking at the beginning of November when the stock rose 20% from its entry point. This week, Docusign's quarterly adjusted profit is expected to increase by 10% to 87 cents per share, with revenue expected to grow by 6% to $0.7452 billion.

The market is closely watching Salesforce.

Salesforce last reported its financial results at the end of August, with significant fluctuations in Q2 performance. The stock initially rose by 5%, but closed down by 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a slight decline that day, but only by 0.2%.

The company's Q2 profits and revenues exceeded expectations, but the revenue guidance for the quarter ending in late October was slightly below expectations. Due to strong market enthusiasm for the company's artificial intelligence platform named Agentforce, Wedbush raised Salesforce's target price from $325 to $375, while maintaining an outperform rating against large caps.

Salesforce also announced that Amy Weaver will step down as chief financial officer, but will continue to serve as an advisor. Until a successor is appointed, she will continue in her role as CFO.

Security software takes the spotlight.

The revenue reports in the security software industry are mixed. After strong performances reported by Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) and Fortinet (FTNT.US), their stock prices remain close to all-time highs. However, following a lukewarm guidance release last Wednesday, CrowdStrike saw a significant drop in its stock price.

Underperforming stocks in this industry, such as Okta (OKTA.US) and Zscaler (ZS.US), as well as CrowdStrike's competitor, SentinelOne (S.US), will also report their financial results this week.

SentinelOne has just started to become profitable. For the current 2025 fiscal year, the company forecasts earnings per share of 3 cents, which is expected to increase to 20 cents per share by the 2026 fiscal year. Quarterly earnings results will be announced after Wednesday's close. For the quarter ending in late October, revenue is expected to grow by 28% to $0.2097 billion.

Another standout is the newly listed Rubrik (RBRK.US). When Rubrik's stocks began trading at the end of April, the first day performance was not smooth. The stock was priced at $32, closing the first day at $37, but then experienced fluctuations and sideways movement until October 10 when a convincing breakthrough occurred.

Rubrik is currently not profitable, but its revenue growth has been strong in the recent quarters. The financial report will be announced after Thursday's close, with quarterly revenue expected to grow by 31% to $0.2175 billion by the end of October.

Beyond security software companies, financial software company nCino (NCNO.US) will report earnings after Wednesday's close. The stock returned to near its high after falling to the 21-day line. Following six consecutive days of software stocks rising and a tough day last Wednesday, nCino traded almost sideways. Over the last few quarters, fund holdings have been steadily increasing, while the company's revenue growth has slowed down. The growth rate is expected to slow down again, with earnings per share possibly increasing by 14% to 16 cents, and revenue by 13% to $0.1373 billion.

Salesforce options trading

When Salesforce's stock price is around 331, the premium for a weekly call option with a strike price of 332.50 expiring on December 6 is about $11.65. This is equivalent to 3.5% of the underlying stock price at that time, slightly below the 4% threshold set by the IBD strategy.

One contract gives the holder the right to buy 100 shares of Salesforce stock at a price of $332.50 per share. The most likely loss is the $1125 paid for the contract to buy 100 shares. Considering the premium paid, the stock price needs to rise to $344.15 to break even.

Based on the current price of 330, the expected range of movement for Salesforce in the options market is around 24 points. This is determined by adding the premium for the call option and the premium for the put option of the contract expiring on December 6, which is the closest expiration date to the earnings report.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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