报告还指出，尽管奇富科技预计第四季度的净利润将在17.5亿人民币至18.5亿人民币之间，非GAAP净利润在18亿人民币至19亿人民币之间（同比增长57%和65%），但公司对宏观环境持谨慎态度，并未从风险指标中捕捉到支持贷款增长的强烈信号。In the latest research report, CITIC Lyon Securities (CLSA) announced that it would raise the target price of Qifu Technology from $29.90 to $44, and reaffirmed the “Outperform” (Outperform) rating. This adjustment reflects CITIC Lyon's confidence in Qifu Technology's strong third-quarter results and positive shareholder return policies.
Qifu Technology's performance in the third quarter of 2024 exceeded market expectations. Net profit increased significantly, the take rate increased dramatically, and risk indicators continued to improve. Analysts expect Qifu Technology's net profit to grow by 9.9% and 5.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Additionally, the company announced a new $0.45 billion share repurchase program starting January 1, 2025.
In the third quarter, Qifu Technology's revenue increased 2.1% year over year, and costs and operating expenses fell 28% year over year. As a result, GAAP and non-GAAP net profit reached 1.8 billion yuan and 1.83 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 58% and 55% over the previous year. Drivers of growth include increased loan disbursements (up 13% month-on-month), lower capital costs (down 40 basis points month-on-month), a rebound in loan provisions, lower sales and market costs, and changes in business structures. The take rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 5.9% month-on-month, and the risk index improved again. The 30-day collection rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 87.4%, while the D1 overdue rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.
The report also pointed out that although Qifu Technology expects net profit for the fourth quarter to be between RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 1.85 billion and non-GAAP net profit between RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 1.9 billion (up 57% and 65% year over year), the company is cautious about the macro environment and has not caught strong signals supporting loan growth from risk indicators.
