Despite an already strong run, Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation (SZSE:002905) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 25% in the last twelve months.
Although its price has surged higher, Guangzhou Jinyi Media's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.9x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Entertainment industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 6.9x and even P/S above 16x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.
How Guangzhou Jinyi Media Has Been Performing
For example, consider that Guangzhou Jinyi Media's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Guangzhou Jinyi Media's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
Guangzhou Jinyi Media's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling revenue, and importantly, perform much worse than the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 16%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 22% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 34% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we are not surprised that Guangzhou Jinyi Media is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.
What Does Guangzhou Jinyi Media's P/S Mean For Investors?
Shares in Guangzhou Jinyi Media have risen appreciably however, its P/S is still subdued. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Guangzhou Jinyi Media confirms that the company's shrinking revenue over the past medium-term is a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, given the industry is projected to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Guangzhou Jinyi Media with six simple checks.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.