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International Genius Company (HKG:33) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 30% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 3, 2024 06:53

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the International Genius Company (HKG:33) share price has dived 30% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 48% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking International Genius is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 6.6x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Retail Distributors industry have P/S ratios below 0.6x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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SEHK:33 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 2nd 2024

How Has International Genius Performed Recently?

For instance, International Genius' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on International Genius' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as International Genius' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 32%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in revenue being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that International Genius' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What Does International Genius' P/S Mean For Investors?

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate International Genius' very lofty P/S. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of International Genius revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for International Genius you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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