Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600518) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 29%.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Kangmei Pharmaceutical is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 6.6x, considering almost half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have P/S ratios below 3.7x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
How Has Kangmei Pharmaceutical Performed Recently?
The recent revenue growth at Kangmei Pharmaceutical would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this good revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kangmei Pharmaceutical, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is Kangmei Pharmaceutical's Revenue Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Kangmei Pharmaceutical would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.4% gain to the company's revenues. The latest three year period has also seen a 15% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 212% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Kangmei Pharmaceutical's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What Does Kangmei Pharmaceutical's P/S Mean For Investors?
Shares in Kangmei Pharmaceutical have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Kangmei Pharmaceutical revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Kangmei Pharmaceutical you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Kangmei Pharmaceutical's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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