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【券商聚焦】中信证券料2025年春运有望成为航空周期试金石

[Brokerage Focus] Citic sec expects that the 2025 Spring Festival travel season will be a touchstone for the aviation cycle.

Jinwu Financial News ·  Dec 3 08:40

Jingwu Financial News | Citic Sec stated that looking ahead to 2025, positive factors such as domestic route revenue management returning to normal, international hub construction, and a decline in aviation fuel costs are continually accumulating. Unlike the past, the traditional "post-cycle" performance of the aviation cycle is expected to be advanced. Reviewing history, the bank believes that the biggest difference in this upward cycle is that the industry has experienced five consecutive years of low aircraft introduction, with the introduction growth rate from 2020 to 2023 being 8.3 percentage points lower in CAGR than that from 2010 to 2018. Analyzing from the perspectives of airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and operating leasing, the bank determines that the market has not fully reflected strong supply constraints. Compared to 2014-2015, the decline in aviation fuel costs may be the most direct factor for airlines’ profit release; as of November 2024, the ex-factory price of aviation fuel has decreased by 14.8% compared to the average price over the previous five months. It is anticipated that the alleviation of aviation fuel pressures in 2025 will promote profit release for airlines. The domestic route revenue management is expected to return to normal in 2025, while positive policy signals such as the continuous expansion of visa-free countries have been emerging. The Spring Festival travel in 2025 is expected to become a touchstone for the aviation cycle.

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