If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at China Telecom (HKG:728) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for China Telecom, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.079 = CN¥42b ÷ (CN¥865b - CN¥330b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, China Telecom has an ROCE of 7.9%. On its own that's a low return, but compared to the average of 6.4% generated by the Telecom industry, it's much better.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for China Telecom compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering China Telecom for free.

The Trend Of ROCE

In terms of China Telecom's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. The company has consistently earned 7.9% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 22% in that time. Given the company has increased the amount of capital employed, it appears the investments that have been made simply don't provide a high return on capital.

Our Take On China Telecom's ROCE

In conclusion, China Telecom has been investing more capital into the business, but returns on that capital haven't increased. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 112% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for China Telecom that we think you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.